Are Betting Markets Mispricing US Senate Odds?
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Markets may be underpricing a bifurcated political outcome. Unless the Iran deescalation succeeds, the delayed economic fallout from the energy shock could materially worsen Republican prospects and raise the probability of a Democratic Senate victory.
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A blend of geopolitics and macro, synthesizing the new and old macro to generate alpha and identify the beta through probability-weighted market views.
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