Asset Allocation
Weak employment will push out the timing of rate hikes to something closer to BCA's view of a September increase. It is also supportive of our asset allocation call two weeks ago to overweight Treasuries.
A Spanish bull, a euro bull, and an equity bear.
There is a risk that global bond yields move higher in the near term, although we prefer to position for that move <i>via</i> cross-market spread, yield curve and inflation trades.
Markets will remain stuck in a trading range, driven by two policy feedback loops: the Fed's and China's.
Investors have embraced renewed Fed hawkishness as a vote of economic confidence and confirmation of analysts' rosy earnings forecasts, but the bounce in financials looks unsustainable, outside of REITs. Hang on to gold shares.
The BoC will continue to watch from the sidelines. Our short-term model shows that the Canadian dollar is modestly cheap after having reached technically overbought levels earlier this month.
While it is impossible to time the stock market, even a system whose results are slightly better than a coin-flip can still generate significant <i>alpha</i>. Overweight equities when valuations are favorable, growth is advancing, and financial conditions are easing. Stocks tend to do best when sentiment is bearish but improving, and the market has started trending higher without yet going parabolic. The outlook for U.S. stocks is rather mixed; Europe, Japan and China should outperform (currency-hedged).
For the month of May, the model underperformed both global equities and the S&P 500. For the month of June, the model is further paring back its risk exposure.
This month's <i>Special Report</i> reviews the literature on equity market timing, and identifies the key indicators that historically have had the best track record. We then aggregate the indicators into an overall scorecard that should prove to be valuable for investors in these volatile times.
Fed hawkishness reinforces the need for an imminent profit recovery to justify current valuations. Our Indicators do not signal such an outcome. Stay defensive, and return to an underweight stance in the industrials sector.