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BCA Indicators/Model

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How Would A Recession Impact 2024 Oil Prices?

In our simulations of fairly deep global recessions averaging -1.5% in 2024 global GDP growth, we expect OPEC 2.0 to reduce output enough to offset lost demand. Even so, we find oil prices drop ~ $22/bbl – from ~ $100/bbl in 1H24 to ~ $78/bbl in 2H24. We remain long the XOP and COMT ETFs to retain oil and commodity exposures.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Ashwin Shyam
US Beige Book: Slowing Economic Activity
The Fed’s latest Beige Book delivered a pessimistic message for the US economy. Half of the 12 districts reported slight declines in activity, two indicated that “conditions were flat to slightly down,” and the remaining four experienced modest growth.  …
Daily Insights
Return Of The Bulls
After a sharp rally since late-October, the S&P 500 is now on the verge of breaking above its late July year-to-date high and completely erasing the losses incurred over the prior three months. Investor sentiment has also rebounded sharply and is once…
Daily Insights
Stay Long Bond Duration
According to our Global Investment Strategy (GIS) service, so far this year, inflation in the US has declined sharply even though employment growth has remained strong. There are many factors that have contributed to this constructive situation, including…
Daily Insights
In Europe, The Magic Eight Dominate
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the Magic Eight are the European counterpart to the US’ Magnificent Seven. The dominance of the so-called Magnificent Seven in the US S&P 500 is well-documented. Europe has its own…
Daily Insights
Cocoa's Near-Parabolic Rally Is Vulnerable To Reversal
The spectacular rally in the cocoa price has taken it to its highest level in 44 years. The proximate cause is lower crop yields in Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire, the world’s two largest cocoa producers. Frequent extreme weather events caused by El Nino and a…
Daily Insights
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A Plausible Path Back To 2% Inflation: Revisiting Our TIPS Golden Rule
Special Report

This week’s Special report revisits our TIPS Golden Rule. We provide a 12-month inflation forecast and discuss how it impacts our TIPS view.

US Bond Strategy by Robert Timper
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Clarity (A GeoRisk Update)

Amid a range of geopolitical narratives, what matters is that the US strategy of economic engagement with its rivals is failing, giving rise to a new strategy of containment that will reinforce the secular rise in geopolitical risk. Our market-based quantitative indicators of geopolitical risk are set to rise in the coming year.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken
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A Review Of Our Current Tactical Trades

In this Insight, we review the performance and rationale for our current set of tactical fixed income trade recommendations. Our highest conviction positions also happen to be our most successful trades: positioning for a narrowing of the German bund-JGB spread and wider Japanese inflation breakevens.

Global Fixed Income Strategy
Treasury Yields And The Relative Performance Of Cyclical Equities
Our equally weighted global cyclical equity index has outperformed equally weighted defensives for most of this year. By October 17, this outperformance stood at about 12.6%. This outperformance is consistent with US Treasury market dynamics. The relative…
Daily Insights

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