BCA Indicators/Model

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2025.

The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio outperformed on the margin through April, returning -0.6%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned -1.2%. On a trailing three-month basis, performance remains robust vs. benchmark, with USHQ generating +230bps of excess return. Volatility and drawdown are lower too.

MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.

MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for April 2025.

Countertrend buy triggers have been activated for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Nasdaq versus 30-year T-bond.

Going into April, MacroQuant recommends a modest underweight on stocks, offset by an overweight on bonds and cash. While MacroQuant is modestly bearish on stocks, we suspect that the downside risks to equities may be greater than what the model assumes.

Going into April, MacroQuant recommends a modest underweight on stocks, offset by an overweight on bonds and cash. While MacroQuant is modestly bearish on stocks, we suspect that the downside risks to equities may be greater than what the model assumes.