Business Cycles
As expected, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday in order to give policymakers time to assess the impact of the aggressive tightening cycle. Chair Powell indicated that the decision to pause is consistent with policy getting closer to its…
The Chilean economy is entering a recession. After two years of tightening fiscal and monetary policies, real economic growth is beginning to contract and inflation is tumbling. Our Emerging Markets strategists expect the economic contraction to deepen in…
With the 1-year CPI swap rate trading at 2.3%, the market was already priced for a significant drop in inflation heading into yesterday’s May CPI release. The results of the report should only reinforce those expectations. While the monthly growth rates of…
China’s money and credit update for May continues a string of disappointing Chinese data releases. The CNY 1.56 trillion increase in total social financing fell below expectations of a CNY 1.90 trillion rise. Similarly, the CNY 1.36 trillion in new bank loans…
The message from the ZEW economic research institute’s June survey was mixed. On the one hand, the German Indicator of Economic Sentiment unexpectedly ticked up from -10.7 to -8.5. While the negative reading indicates that the pessimists continue to outnumber…
US equity market moves have recently shifted in favor of small caps. After underperforming the S&P 500 by 16% between the start of March and beginning of June, the S&P 600’s recent 6% gain is greater than its large-cap counterpart’s 2.8% increase. …
Results of the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations sent a positive signal about short-term inflation expectations. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations dropped by 0.3 percentage point to a two-year low of 4.1% in May. Moreover, median…
Investors and policymakers went on high alert after two large-cap banks, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, failed in a 48-hour span in early March. Google searches for “banking crisis” exploded in the two full weeks following the high-profile failures,…
According to the Exposure Index compiled by the National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM), active risk managers are increasing their net exposure to equities. The range of responses to the weekly survey include 200% leveraged long,…
In our May In Review Insight, we highlighted that last month, industrial metals generated the largest abnormal losses among the major global financial assets we track. This continues a downtrend that started at the beginning of the year and has pushed down…