Business Cycles
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the earnings contraction is far from over. However, rising productivity, falling costs, or a new restocking cycle could help. Earnings and sales growth beat analyst expectations in Q1-23, yet in real…
Tuesday’s German factory orders release sent a disappointing signal about industrial demand. Although the pace of decline eased from -10.9% m/m to -0.4% m/m in April, it fell below expectations of a 2.8% m/m increase. Both capital and consumer goods orders…
The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets with a 25 basis point rate hike on Tuesday, bringing the Cash Rate up to 4.1%. This marks the second consecutive rate increase following a pause in April. The post-meeting statement stressed that at 7%,…
After a brief period of outperformance in late-2022/early-2023, Emerging Market stocks have been underperforming their Developed Market counterparts since January 19. While the DM equity benchmark is up 6.9% over this period, the EM index has lost 4.0% in USD…
The Swedish manufacturing PMI declined to 40.6 in May, the lowest level since June 2020. This deterioration in Sweden’s manufacturing activity not only reflects the domestic economy, but it also highlights weaknesses in the global industrial cycle. Sweden…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, the near-term consensus outlook has grudgingly improved but is still excessively bearish. Economic surprises will continue to boost stocks until a 2023 recession is fully priced out. On May 4th,…
The ISM PMI sent a disappointing signal about US service sector activity in May. The headline index unexpectedly fell from 51.9 to 50.3 – the weakest level since December and surprising expectations of an improvement to 52.4. The details of the release were…
In our May In Review Insight, we showed that last month, UK stocks posted the lowest z-score among all major global equity markets, underperforming their Eurozone peers. What explains this relative weakness? The chart above reveals that the performance of…
In this short weekly report, we review some of our favorite FX trades.
The Global Manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 49.6 in May – below the 50 boom-bust line for the ninth consecutive month. The details of the release were mixed. On the one hand, the Production sub-component rose to an 11-month high of 51.5. On the other hand,…