Business Cycles
Both the ISM and Markit PMIs suggest that US manufacturing activity accelerated in September. The ISM index increased 1.2 points to a four-month high of 61.1, surprising expectations of a decline. Similarly, the Markit measure inched up 0.2 points to 60.7. …
China’s NBS and Caixin Manufacturing PMIs sent a contradictory signal for September. The official manufacturing index slipped into contractionary territory after declining 0.5 points to 49.6. Consensus estimates anticipated a marginal decline to 50.…
The sharp selloff in Treasurys over the past week has ignited a debate among BCA Research strategists about whether it is attributed to rising fears about inflation (see Country Focus) or is part of the reopening trade. The simultaneous rally in oil prices,…
Results from Sweden’s September Economic Tendency survey were a minor disappointment. The headline indicator slipped 0.7 points to 119.9. The confidence indicators for both the manufacturing industry and consumer declined marginally. Despite the slight…
Brent prices climbed to an over six-year high on Tuesday, nearly touching $80/bbl. Current prices are above our Commodity & Energy strategists’ expectation that prices will average $70.50/bbl in Q4 and $75/bbl in 2022. The team views oil markets as facing…
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service recommends investors underweight government bonds where markets are discounting a path for future policy rates over the next two years that is too flat: the US, UK, Canada, and Norway Last week…
US and Euro Area measures of consumer confidence are diverging. According to the Conference Board survey, US consumer sentiment declined for the third consecutive month to a seven-month low of 109.3 in September. The nearly six-point drop is well below…
New orders for US durable goods grew 1.8% month-on-month to a record $263.5 billion in August. The increase follows an upwardly revised 0.5% and is more than double expectations of a 0.7% rise. However, a 5.5% month-on-month surge in transportation equipment…
The German IFO’s Business Climate Index softened for the third consecutive month in September, falling to 98.8 from 99.6. The weakness was led by the Current Assessment number which lost 1-point versus expectations of a minor improvement. Meanwhile, the…
The Bank of England kept policy unchanged at its meeting on Thursday. Instead, it revised down its Q3 growth outlook to 2.1% from last month’s 2.9%. However, it highlighted that this revision largely reflects the dampening effect of supply constraints on…