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Business Cycles

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Sector Positioning Scorecard

We created a sector selection scorecard based on performance of sectors under various macroeconomic regimes while taking into consideration revisions to expected earnings growth and valuations in a historical context. Our total sector selection scorecard suggests overweighting defensives such as Utilities, and Consumer Staples, and underweighting cyclicals such as Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, and Financials. Considering this analysis, we have adjusted our sector positioning accordingly.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
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China Geopolitical Outlook 2024
Special Report

China will continue to suffer from a “triple crisis”. Though there could be a tactical bounce, cyclically we still recommend underweighting Chinese equities.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken
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Germany’s Travails Continue
Special Report

The German economy has lagged that of Europe. This trend will continue, but does it mean German equities will underperform further?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Can The US Dollar Rally When The Fed Cuts Rates?
Our Emerging Markets team believes that the risk-reward profile of the US dollar remains very attractive. First, if US growth stays robust, US interest rate expectations will rise because rate cuts priced in will not be realized. Rising interest rates will…
Daily Insights
Canadian Labor Force Survey Delivers A Positive Surprise
The latest Canadian data suggest that although demand is cooling down, the Canadian economy is not in freefall. The unemployment rate fell for the first time since December 2022, declining by 0.1 percentage points to 5.7%, compared to consensus…
Daily Insights
Seasonal Factors Boost Chinese Credit Growth In January
China’s credit data update for January delivered a mixed signal on Friday. The CNY 6.50 trillion increase in aggregate financing beat expectations of CNY 5.60 trillion and marked a significant acceleration from CNY 1.94 trillion in December. Similarly, the…
Daily Insights
The US Is Driving The Global Trade Recovery
Over the past few months we have been highlighting that there are some budding signs of a recovery in global manufacturing activity. Most notably, the new orders-to-inventories ratio of Sweden’s manufacturing PMI has been rebounding. To the extent that Sweden…
Daily Insights
US Recession: Delayed But Not Denied
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service’s revised forecast is centered on a recession starting in late 2024 or early 2025. The strong pace of US growth has continued into early 2024. Preliminary estimates from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model…
Daily Insights
A Benign Quest For Efficiency?
Last Friday’s blockbuster US employment report is among the recent data releases that have focused investors’ attention on the possibility that resilient economic conditions will reduce the magnitude of Fed easing this year. Markets are now priced for roughly…
Daily Insights
Deflationary Headwinds Continue To Plague China’s Economy
Thursday’s Chinese CPI and PPI release for January indicates that deflationary pressures continue to dominate the domestic economy. On the consumer side, prices registering the fastest pace of annual decline in 15 years. The CPI’s 0.8% y/y decrease is more…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity See more Topics Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics