Canada
Investors have taken comfort in the fact that unemployment has remained low in the major economies. But underneath the surface, there are clear signs that labor demand is weakening. The clock keeps ticking towards our H2 2024 recession call. After being bullish on risk assets last year, we are slowly turning more defensive.
Canadian government bond yields jumped on Tuesday, with the 10-year yield rising by nearly 14 basis points. While most other major DM government bonds also sold off, the move in Canadian yields was relatively more pronounced. Both global and domestic forces…
Canada’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicator increased slightly in Q4, suggesting that sentiment stabilized at the end of 2023. In particular, easing inflationary pressures amid weaker demand and greater competition drove the 0.3-point uptick. Notably,…
Australian CPI inflation fell from 4.9% y/y to a 22-month low of 4.3% y/y in November – slightly below expectations of 4.4%. Underlying measures of core inflation also indicate that price pressures eased in November. The rate of growth in CPI excluding…
In this, our final report of the year, we present our main global fixed income investment themes and recommendations for 2024.
Our outlook for the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies in 2024.
Our outlook for the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies in 2024.
Multiple major DM central banks are scheduled to decide on monetary policy this week. The US Fed will meet on Wednesday, followed by the ECB, BoE, and Norges Bank on Thursday. It comes after the BoC and RBA both opted to keep rates unchanged last week. …
The BoC kept its policy rate steady at 5% for the fourth consecutive meeting on Wednesday, in line with expectations. In its press release, the BoC maintained that it is ready to keep hiking if deemed necessary. That said, the BoC noted that inflationary…
Tuesday’s CPI release confirmed that the disinflationary trend in Canada remains intact. After a brief relapse this summer, Canada’s inflation is headed in the right direction. As anticipated, headline CPI inflation came in at 3.1% y/y in October, down from…