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China

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Election Campaign Heads Into Summer

The stock market will suffer a setback from the weakening labor market and a rebound in US and global policy uncertainty.

US Political Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken
Chinese Economic Recovery Hinges On Property Market Revival
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, a decisive turnaround in China’s economy hinges on a revival in the country’s property market. The April 30th Politburo meeting signaled policymakers' intent to restore housing demand and…
Daily Insights
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A Reality Check

A reality check on credit data and announced property sector support measures indicates that the recent surge in Chinese share prices is unjustified based on the country's economic fundamentals.

China Investment Strategy by Jing Sima
China's Credit Growth Disappoints
Chinese aggregate financing, a broad measure of credit, declined on a YTD basis, from CNY 12.9tr to CNY 12.7tr in April, disappointing expectations that it would grow to CNY 13.9tr. Moreover, new loan growth missed expectations (from CNY 9.5tr to CNY 10.2tr)…
Daily Insights
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Bunds In A Bind

German Bunds have cheapened considerably, and the ECB is about to start cutting rates. Does this combination guarantee immediate profits from buying these bonds?

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Fade These Rallies, Despite Upgraded Asia Growth Forecast
Upward growth revisions for China and India have led the IMF to recently upgrade its 2024 growth forecast for Asia to 4.5% from 4.2%. The regional growth forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 4.3%. The IMF now expects the Chinese economy to grow at a 4.6%…
Daily Insights
What Is Driving The Commodity Rally?
The S&P GSCI broad commodity index has returned 8% year-to-date. Improving investor sentiment has significantly broadened the rally since the beginning of the year. Over 65% of commodities in the index are now trading above their 200-day moving averages,…
Daily Insights
Caixin Services PMI Underscores Positive Demand Dynamics
The Caixin services and composite PMIs were broadly unchanged in April. The services PMI decreased from 52.7 to 52.5, in line with expectations, while the composite PMI increased from 52.7 to 52.8. Details underscored positive dynamics. New business growth…
Daily Insights
Fade The Rally In Chinese Stocks
Chinese investable stocks have rallied on a combination of investors’ hopes for stimulus, revival in the global manufacturing cycle and cheap valuations. The MSCI China index and the Hang Seng have both gained close to 15% since mid-April. However, our…
Daily Insights
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A Conversation With Ms. Mea: Distinguishing The Signal From The Noise

Mainland residents’ investments in gold, other metals, and Hong Kong-traded stocks are a form of capital outflow. Chinese authorities will counter any excessive capital flight with stricter administrative controls. Thus, markets benefiting from these flows will likely be hurt.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan

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