Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Commodities & Energy Sector

f_image_20231120_191506.PNG
The Midwest: The Pivot Of US History
Special Report

President Biden is facing foreign challenges on three fronts and these challenges are coalescing around the critical states of the Midwest. Take risks off the table and stay defensive in 2024.

US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri
On The Underperformance Of Palladium Versus Platinum
As we anticipated in an Insight we published in May, palladium continues to underperform platinum. Last week, platinum's discount to palladium shrunk to its smallest since August 2018. While the prices of both metals have fallen so far this year, palladium's…
Daily Insights
The Riddle Of Falling Oil Prices
Oil prices have relapsed despite the supply cuts and the geopolitical volatility stemming from the Middle East. Odds are that global oil demand is downshifting. The chart above illustrates that there is a tight relationship between crude oil prices and the…
Daily Insights
Cocoa's Near-Parabolic Rally Is Vulnerable To Reversal
The spectacular rally in the cocoa price has taken it to its highest level in 44 years. The proximate cause is lower crop yields in Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire, the world’s two largest cocoa producers. Frequent extreme weather events caused by El Nino and a…
Daily Insights
Core OPEC 2.0 Supply Discipline Continues
BCA Research's Commodity & Energy Strategy service continues to expect Russia to reduce oil exports next year by up to 2mm b/d (25% probability), in an effort to reduce US President Biden’s chances of being re-elected. Resilient oil exports and global…
Daily Insights
f_image_20231115_174227.PNG
2024 Brent Forecast Down A Tad To $112/bbl

US and Chinese oil-demand strength will offset EU weakness next year. Incremental supply growth from non-OPEC 2.0 producers, coupled with a lower risk of the US enforcing its sanctions on Iranian oil exports, reduces our 2024 Brent price forecast by $6/bbl, and takes it to $112/bbl.

Commodity & Energy Strategy by Ashwin Shyam
Copper-To-Gold Ratio: Emerging Green Shoots?
Throughout most of the second half of this year, the copper-to-gold ratio has been relatively stable, gyrating within a tight range. However, it is starting to show some tentative signs of bottoming. After the copper-to-gold ratio initially fell in the first…
Daily Insights
Sugar Is Bucking The Trend
Agriculture commodity prices have been on a steady decline for over a year. Since peaking in mid-May 2022, the GSCI Agriculture index has dropped by 34% -- nearly half of which occurred in 2023. The weakness is generally broad-based. Corn prices are down 32%,…
Daily Insights
f_image_20231110_183945.PNG
Recap Of Q3 Earnings: Looking Ahead

Q3 earnings commentary has been broadly positive, despite intensifying macro headwinds. Going forward, a negative growth outlook and geopolitical risks, are a threat to buoyant earnings expectations. We project that earnings growth for 2024 will move lower than currently projected - a negative for equities. This Santa Claus rally is unlikely to be the start of a new bull market.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel, Guy Russell
Natgas Demand: Higher For Longer
In the short run – i.e., over the current Northern Hemisphere winter – natural gas storage levels will be sufficient to balance heating and industrial demand with flowing supplies, assuming a normal winter in the EU and US, according to our colleagues at BCA…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics