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Consumer

JOLTS: Weak Labor Signals Confirm Strong Case for Duration
Labor market data continues to cool, reinforcing our overweight in government bonds and above-benchmark duration stance. February job openings fell to 7.6m, below expectations. Declining quits and rising layoffs signal that labor market slack is increasing.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Bonds Are Back: Why UK Gilts Will Outshine German Bunds

With economic headwinds building and fiscal dynamics shifting, bond markets are at a turning point. Our latest note outlines why German bund yields are set to decline and why UK gilts are poised to outperform — and how to position accordingly.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Stagflation Watch: Hot PCE, Softening Demand
February US PCE data adds to the stagflationary tone, reinforcing our overweight duration stance and tactical short in front-end rates. Core PCE inflation rose 0.4% m/m, lifting the year-on-year rate to 2.8%, matching the Fed’s 2025 projection. Headline held…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Recession Watch Update

This morning’s weak consumer spending and strong inflation data reinforce our sense that the US economy is heading toward recession.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Second Quarter 2025 Strategy Outlook: Into The Abyss

In this Second Quarter Strategy Outlook, we explore the major trends that are set to drive financial markets for the rest of 2025 and beyond.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
UK: Cooling Prices, Fragile Policy Mix
UK inflation came in cooler than expected in February, but lingering price pressures and a still-firm labor market keep the BoE sidelined, for now. Our Global Fixed-Income strategists view the BoE as the most likely DM central bank to surprise on the dovish…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Core Capex Orders Fall As Uncertainty Rises
A drop in core capex orders points to slowing business spending and softening global growth. Businesses appear to have front-loaded shipments ahead of potential tariffs while deferring new orders amid policy uncertainty. With hiring and capex plans softening…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
The Delinquency Paradox
Our US Investment Strategy team recommends investors remain defensively positioned. Stay underweight US equities and overweight Treasuries and cash, on both a tactical and cyclical horizon, as the likelihood of a midyear recession continues to rise. With key…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Consumer Confidence Craters, Inflation Expectations Spike
A sharp drop in consumer confidence adds to signs that a consumption slowdown is coming, threatening both US and global growth. Yet rising short-term inflation expectations will keep central banks cautious, weighing on long-term yields even as growth weakens.…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Notes From The Road: Visiting Clients Down Under

The US economy faces a new investment regime characterized by tighter fiscal and easier monetary policies. The market corrected fast, and a short-lived equity rebound is likely. However, over the long term, US equities face economic headwinds.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel

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Business Cycles Capex Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics