Consumer
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, investors are overstating the degree to which bond yields will rise under a Trump presidency. For one thing, the team expects the US to fall into recession by the end of 2024 or early 2025. A…
As highlighted in Wednesday’s edition of BCA Live & Unfiltered, the Chinese economy and its financial markets face several daunting challenges. Its demographic outlook is unfavorable, with a low birthrate stifling population growth; the grim math of…
Our US Investment strategists define excess savings as the difference between what households saved beginning in March 2020 and what they might have saved had the pandemic not occurred. To estimate the latter, they assumed that disposable income would have…
Our colleagues from the Emerging Markets Strategy team argue that investors should brace for a significant correction in Indian stocks in the coming months. They posit that the pillar of Indian corporations' sustained profit growth — surging revenues — is…
Our US Investment Strategy colleagues have kept a close eye on excess savings and their disposition since the CARES Act funds began to flow in the spring of 2020. Their conviction that the consensus failed to recognize the consumption potential inherent in…
Does the incipient slowdown in European data herald a soft landing and a goldilocks period for equities? We have our doubts.
The ISM Services PMI largely disappointed in June. The headline index plunged from 53.8 to 48.8, its fastest pace of contraction since May 2020, far below expectations of 52.7. This series can be noisy and the June update merely reversed a surprise surge…
The US conventional 30-year mortgage rate climbed back above 7% in late June and drove a 2.6% weekly contraction in mortgage applications. The fixed-rate home affordability index sank to a nearly four-decade low. Housing is one of the most interest-rate…
The number of job openings in the US surprised to the upside in May, growing from a downwardly revised 7.9 million to 8.1 million. Not only did the growth in job openings beat expectations of a decline, but the May number even grew compared to the pre-revised…
The University of Michigan survey of consumers was released on Friday. The sentiment measure increased from 65.6 to 68.2, beating consensus estimates of 66. Current conditions as well as expectations also increased, going from 62.5 to 65.9, and from 67.6 to…