Consumer
UK retail sales volumes were flat in March, a decrease from the 0.1% growth registered in February and disappointing expectations of a 0.3% m/m increase. The details were mixed, with automotive fuel and non-food stores sales volumes…
BCA’s US Beige Book Monitor – an indicator we use to gauge changes in the language of the Fed’s Beige Book report and which historically tracks US GDP growth – has improved in April. Nevertheless — and despite March's hot retail sales and February's…
Developments in US multi-family housing are particularly relevant for the inflation outlook since they inform the future direction of shelter inflation – an important component of CPI inflation. Indeed, the Zillow multi-family rent index leads moves in the…
In this note, we preview the Q1-2024 earnings season, give our take on expectations and share what we will be watching.
Chinese economic data releases painted a mixed picture of domestic conditions on Tuesday. Chinese real GDP growth accelerated from 5.2% y/y to 5.3% y/y in Q1 2024, beating expectations of 4.8% and suggesting that economic momentum improved at the start of…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service while Telecoms are not attractive on a strategic investment horizon, as a low-beta defensive sector they offer excellent downside protection for a portfolio. The Telecom industry is incredibly…
Advanced estimates for retail sales in the US grew by 0.7% m/m in March, down from an upwardly revised 0.9% m/m in February, but meaningfully outperforming expectations of 0.3% m/m. Retail sales ex autos also surprised to the upside, coming in at 1.1% m/m…
The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan gauge of consumer sentiment slid from 79.4 to 77.9 in April from 79.4, below expectations. Although both current conditions and expectations disappointed, the deterioration in expectations came against the…
We look beneath headline data to assess the state of the labor market in cyclical goods-producing industries that have previously led overall nonfarm payrolls and in the services segments that have recently been leading the charge. The bottom-up view looks a lot like the top-down view: the labor market is softening, but very slowly, and offers no indications that a recession is at hand.
EUR/USD collapsed in the wake of last week’s hotter-than-expected US CPI report. Is this pessimism warranted and will the euro’s trading range that has prevailed since 2023 breakdown?