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Strategy Outlook – 2024 Key Views: Here Comes The Kink

Global Investment Strategy predicted the surge of inflation in 2021/22 and the immaculate disinflation of 2023. Now their unique framework is predicting a recession in the second half of 2024.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
US Jobs Data Deliver A Positive Surprise
The US employment report delivered a positive surprise on Friday. Nonfarm payroll growth accelerated from 150 thousand to 199 thousand in November, beating expectations of 185 thousand. Importantly, the favorable result was corroborated by the unemployment…
Daily Insights
UK Households See Inflation Easing Over Near Term, Still Skeptical Over Longer Term
The latest Bank of England/Ipsos quarterly Inflation Attitudes Survey shows the public revised down its near-term inflation outlook. Respondents now believe inflation will fall to 3.3% in the year ahead – down from 3.6% in the August survey and the lowest…
Daily Insights
The Key Macro Theme for China In 2024
The global investment community has become well aware of many problems facing the Chinese economy including real estate excesses, policymakers’ reluctance to stimulate, as well as elevated debt levels among local governments, enterprises, and consumers. …
Daily Insights
Fade The Positive Surprise From Chinese Exports
On the surface, Chinese export data delivered a positive surprise on Thursday, painting a favorable picture of the global manufacturing cycle. Exports unexpectedly grew on a year-over-year basis in November for the first time since April. The 0.5% y/y…
Daily Insights
The US Jobs Report, And What Will Trigger The Joshi Rule Recession Indicator
The ‘Joshi rule’ real-time recession indicator signals the start of a US recession when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate of ‘job losers not on temporary layoff’ rises by 0.20 percent from its low during the previous 12 months. The…
Daily Insights
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2024 Key Views: China Is In A Deflationary Trap

The overarching macro theme for China in 2024 will be deflation and its impact on the economy, macro policies, and financial markets. Widespread deflation, in combination with high debt levels and falling real estate prices, has unleashed debt deflation and balance sheet recession dynamics. The latter are rendering monetary policy inefficient.

China Investment Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
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Thailand: Will Growth Revive Next Year?

Meager credit growth and shrinking real wages will keep Thai inflation very low in the coming months. The currency will get support from an improving current account surplus. Fixed-income investors should upgrade Thailand from neutral to overweight within EM domestic bond portfolios.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
German Factory Orders Disappoint
German factory orders sent a disappointing signal on Wednesday.  New orders at German factories unexpectedly declined by 3.7% m/m in October, disappointing expectations of a 0.2% m/m rise following two consecutive months of increase. The annual rate of…
Daily Insights
Euro Area Retail Sales: A Budding Rebound?
Retail sales volumes grew on a sequential basis for the first time in three months in October, rising by 0.1% m/m following an upwardly revised 0.1% m/m decline. On an annual basis, the pace of decline slowed from -2.9% y/y to -1.2% y/y. While the release…
Daily Insights

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Business Cycles Capex Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics