Consumer Discretionary
We took profits on our underweight S&P hotel index position and upgraded to neutral in November, because a number of companies reduced 2017 guidance and revenue per room (REVPAR) expectations at the same time that value had improved. Since then, hotel stocks have outperformed significantly, as the improvement in consumer and business sentiment is expected to boost lodging spending. That is necessary to counter the surge in wage inflation, as measured by the acceleration in the lodging industry employment cost index (bottom panel). Perhaps the most appealing development of late has been the downturn in lodging industry construction outlays. If sustained, that will reverse a long-term increase in capacity. The latter is critical to fostering more robust pricing power gains in line with past cyclical upswings. The bottom line is that the outlook for hotel profits has improved, but staying patient for a more attractive entry point is recommended given that the share price ratio is extremely overbought in the short run. Stay neutral, but put this group on upgrade alert. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5HOTL - MAR, CCL, RCL, WYN.
Media stocks are on track to set new relative performance highs. Media sales growth is in recovery mode. Consumers have significantly boosted spending on media services, as measured by personal consumption expenditures data. Pricing power has surged in response to demand strength (bottom panel). In turn, strong demand is boosting measures of productivity: our proxy for sales/employment is accelerating toward the double-digit growth zone. Productivity is diverging positively from relative forward earnings expectations, implying there is room for a re-rating. As long as the U.S. economy is growing, media companies should be able to garner an increasing share of consumer wallets. Real spending on media services has been in a steady uptrend for well over a decade, reflecting its ability to continually innovate, only pausing during recessions when consumers are forced to retrench. Rising spending underscores that pricing power gains are sustainable (bottom panel). Stay overweight, and please refer to yesterday's Weekly Report for more details.
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Media stocks are poised to challenge previous relative performance highs as sales growth reaccelerates. Stay overweight. The materials sector has lagged behind the commodity price rally, a sign of underlying weakness rather than latent strength. Chemicals overcapacity will remain a headwind until U.S. competitiveness improves. Stay clear. Recent Changes There are no changes to our portfolio this week. Table 1Sector Performance Returns (%) Feature The broad market has been very strong since the November election. While advance/decline lines have firmed, participation in the rally has been uneven and may be fraying around the edges. For example, the number of groups trading above their 40-week moving average has been diverging negatively from the broad market in the last few months, suggesting diminishing breadth (Chart 1). In fact, the industrials (I) and financials (F) sectors have carried the market since November. Other deep cyclical sectors, such as energy, materials and tech, have mostly matched market performance. The 'IF' rally is based on an expected upgrade to the economic growth plane that matches the surge in various sentiment gauges. If validation does not occur, then the IF rally will become iffy indeed, unless sector breadth improves. Last week we showed that market cap-to-GDP was so far above its long-term average that even if nominal growth boomed at 8% per annum for the next five years this valuation ratio would still not have normalized. That valuation backdrop may not upend additional short-term market momentum, but it is a true measure of just how bullish sentiment has become and should be a critical input to the portfolio construction process, because of its warning about divergences from fundamental supports. Another unconventional sentiment gauge is observed from sub-surface market patterns. Chart 1 shows that the number of defensive groups with a positive 52-week rate of change, in relative terms, is in freefall, plunged to virtually nil. In the last two decades, investors eschewing capital preservation and non-cyclical sectors so aggressively has typically preceded major market peaks (Chart 1). The steep drop in the put/call ratio confirms that euphoria and greed are trumping mistrust and fear. The put/call ratio has recently bounced, but is well below levels that signal investors are accumulating significant portfolio protection. The Fed's tightening bias, contracting U.S. dollar-based financial liquidity amid the strong U.S. dollar all threaten to keep a lid on corporate sector sales prospects. As such, we remain biased toward non-cyclical and consumer sectors, even excluding fiscal policy uncertainty. Chart 2 shows that these areas are in a base-building phase, in relative terms, following their post-election drubbing. We expect momentum to steadily build toward sustained outperformance by midyear. Conversely, a reversal in the 'IF' sectors already appears to be developing, while other capital spending-dependent sectors are unable to gain momentum (Chart 3). This week we highlight both a winning group and an area we expect to disappoint. Chart 1The Rally Is Fraying Around The Edges Chart 2Defensive Base-Building? Chart 3Cyclical Sector Distribution New Highs Ahead For Media While the consumer discretionary sector has a poor track record during Fed tightening cycles, the S&P media sub-component can buck this trend. Media stocks outperformed in the second half of the 1990s and also trended higher in the 1980s while the Fed was tightening. The key was the U.S. dollar (Chart 4). As long as the dollar was strong, media companies sustained a profit advantage over the rest of the corporate sector owing to limited external exposure. A replay is currently playing out, and has the potential to persist for at least the next few quarters based on upbeat cyclical indicators. Media sales growth is in recovery mode. Consumers have significantly boosted spending on media services, as measured by personal consumption expenditures data (Chart 5). Pricing power has surged in response to demand strength (Chart 5, bottom panel). In turn, strong demand is boosting measures of productivity: our proxy for sales/employment is accelerating toward the double-digit growth zone (Chart 5). Productivity is diverging positively from relative forward earnings expectations, implying there is room for a re-rating. As long as the U.S. economy is growing, media companies should be able to garner an increasing share of consumer wallets. Chart 6 shows that real spending on media services has been in a steady uptrend for well over a decade, reflecting its ability to continually innovate, only pausing during recessions when consumers are forced to retrench. Typically, a rise in spending pulls up pricing power (Chart 6). Chart 4Media Stocks Like Dollar Strength Chart 5Sales Are Set To Accelerate Chart 6Secular Strength All of this has spurred a recovery in media cash flow growth (Chart 7, top panel). Relative performance and cash flow move hand-in-hand. Rising cash flows also imply that the media sector can further reduce shares outstanding through buybacks and/or M&A activity (Chart 7), bolstering ROE. The S&P movies & entertainment index has been one of the driving forces behind the broader media index recovery. We upgraded the former to overweight after the vicious selloff related to Disney's ESPN woes and the takeover saga at Viacom had pushed the index to an undervalued extreme. While slightly early, this upgrade is now paying off (Chart 8). The expectations hurdle remains surmountable. Both forward earnings and sales growth estimates are deeply negative (Chart 8), reflecting the well-known cooling in cable subscriber growth. But even here, there is room for potential upside surprises. Consumer spending on recreation has been growing at a low single-digit clip, but the surge in consumer confidence, courtesy of rising wage growth and a positive wealth effect from rising real estate and financial asset prices, should support increased discretionary consumer spending. The message from the jump in the ISM services index is bullish for recreation spending (Chart 9, second panel). Chart 7Shareholder-Friendly Chart 8Cheap With Low Expectations Chart 9Still Early In The Recovery In turn, faster spending would support ongoing pricing power gains (Chart 9). The industry is already sporting one of the most robust selling price increases of all that we track, as advertising rate inflation is growing anew. Importantly, real outlays on cable services have recovered after a steep decline (Chart 9), suggesting that the drag from disappointing cable subscriber growth and cord cutting may be easing. Less churn implies more pricing power. Content cost inflation also remains under wraps. The implication is that the fundamental forces to propel a retest of previous relative performance highs are in place. Technical conditions are also sending a bullish signal. Cyclical momentum, as measured by the 52-week rate of change, is on the cusp of breaking into positive territory (Chart 9), while the share price ratio has already crossed decisively above key resistance at its 40-week moving average. A dual breakout would confirm a new bull trend. Bottom Line: Media stocks have good odds of retesting previous relative performance highs as discretionary consumer spending perks up. Stay overweight the overall media group, and the S&P movies and entertainment index in particular. Chemical Stocks: A Toxic Portfolio Blend The commodity price recovery has not carried over into the S&P materials sector, as relative performance has been moving laterally for much of the last twelve months. Rather than view this as an opportunity to play catch up, the more likely outcome is that the sector has missed its chance to outperform. In fact, downside risks have intensified. The strong U.S. dollar will exact a toll on U.S. exporters, particularly if emerging markets and China do not experience accelerating final demand. While there has been a massive amount of stimulus in China over the past 18 months, the thrust of that impulse is fading. Fiscal spending growth has dropped sharply and the authorities trying to cool rampant real estate speculation. The yield curve remains flat (Chart 10), as local funding costs rise on the back of the authorities attempt to mitigate capital outflows, and loan demand remains weak. Persistent weakness in the Chinese currency may reflect a lack of confidence in local returns, i.e. sub-par growth. All of that argues against expecting a major impetus to raw materials demand, at a time when the materials sector total wage bill is inflating more aggressively. Our Cyclical Macro Indicator for the materials sector is hitting new lows (Chart 10), heralding earnings underperformance, underscoring that below-benchmark allocations remain appropriate. The S&P chemicals group represents for than 70% of the overall materials market cap. It has underperformed since its peak and our underweight call in 2014, pulled lower by the soaring U.S. dollar and sagging industry productivity (Chart 11). Net earnings revisions have been consistently revised lower over the past few years, and are unlikely to recover without a reflationary push (global real yields are shown inverted, second panel, Chart 11) that revives chemical final demand. Analysts have latched on to the firming in global purchasing manager survey sentiment, aggressively pushing up sales growth expectations in recent months (Chart 12). Clearly, manufacturing sector expansion is expected to reverse the contraction in chemical output growth (Chart 12). Chart 10Higher PMIs Are Not Enough Chart 11Higher Yields Are A Bad Omen Chart 12Expectations Are Inflated However, this may be yet another case of analysts chronically overestimating the industry's earnings power. Global manufacturing improvement seems likely to accrue mostly to firms outside the U.S. Chart 13 shows that chemicals relative performance is heavily influenced by the U.S. dollar. Valuations and sentiment are tightly linked with chemical export growth (Chart 13), as the latter represent 14% of total U.S. exports. The U.S. dollar surge is diverting orders away from U.S. manufacturers: German chemical new orders have surged, and the IFO survey of chemical industry executives signals optimism about the future (Chart 14). Chart 13The Dollar Is Hurting The U.S. ... Chart 14... But Helping Foreign Competitors U.S. executives appear to be equally confident, but that optimism is misplaced. The American Chemical Council expects U.S. chemical exports to increase 7% a year through 2021. Over $170B is expected to be invested in U.S. chemical manufacturing capacity, representing nearly 25% of the total industry size, which is anticipated to boost the chemical trade surplus to new records. So far, roughly $76B of projects has either been completed or is under construction. If these planned projects all come to fruition, our concern is that new capacity will be idle rather than productive. The industry is in the crosshairs of anti-globalization and protectionism, and a strong U.S. dollar and rising domestic cost structures threaten to reduce competitiveness. Chemical imports are a fairly large portion of sales, rendering profitability vulnerable should an import-tax ever be introduced. From a cyclical standpoint, deflationary pressures are already very acute. Chemical capacity is growing much faster than production, warning that pricing power will be under significant pressure (Chart 15). Many chemical products are destined for interest rate-sensitive end markets such as autos, underscoring that a Fed tightening cycle is a headwind. While capacity expansion was planned when interest rates and feedstock costs were expected to remain at rock bottom levels for the foreseeable future, this is no longer the case. Chemical companies can either use natural gas (ethane) or oil (naphtha) as a primary feedstock. U.S. production is largely ethane-based, while global capacity is geared to naphtha. Rising U.S. natural gas prices are undermining the U.S. input cost advantage (Chart 16). Chart 15Persistent Deflation Pressures Chart 16U.S. Cost Structures Are Unattractive Increased capacity has also put significant upward pressure on wage costs, as our proxy for the total wage bill is rising at a high single-digit rate (Chart 16). With capital spending slated to stay robust in the coming years, it will likely continue to take a larger share of sales, impairing profit margins. While the planned merger between heavyweights Dow Chemical and Dupont may eventually help to rationalize costs, this is a necessary but not sufficient step in the face of a loss of global market share. Without accelerating sales, U.S. chemical makers will be hard pressed to improve productivity sufficiently to reverse the slide in relative forward earnings estimates. Bottom Line: The S&P materials sector hasn't been able to outperform during a period of improving global manufacturing activity, raising doubts about its performance potential when global output growth inevitably slows. Part of this reflects the challenging outlook for the sector heavyweight chemicals index, and we recommend staying underweight both. The symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5CHEM - APD, ARG, CF, DOW, EMN, ECL, DD, FMC, IFF, LYB, MON, MOS, PPG, PX, SHW. Current Recommendations Current Trades Size And Style Views Favor small over large caps. Favor growth over value (downgrade alert).
Highlights The uptrend in consumer confidence has the potential to be lasting, and therefore lead to an acceleration in real consumption over the next several quarters. In contrast, the rise in business optimism is thus far built on shakier fundamentals, and therefore vulnerable to disappointment - at least until corporate executives see signs of a pickup in consumer demand. Some of the cyclical tailwinds that have aligned for consumers are: very low essential spending burdens, rising incomes, a positive wealth effect, and improved credit scores. Several areas of the U.S. equity market are set to outperform on the back of this improved consumer profile. Feature Financial markets continue to be optimistic about a more fertile business backdrop under a Trump presidency. At current valuations, equities are likely to undergo a testing phase. Indeed, the equity market's reaction to President-elect's press conference last week - the first in months - may be an omen of what is in store should Trump disappoint relative to what appears like very high expectations for the early days of his Presidency. At first blush, it appears that the surge in sentiment among a broad range of economic agents was precipitated by just one factor: Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election. Measures of both business and consumer confidence all rose sharply after November 8th (Chart 1). An important question is how sustainable and how far-reaching is this new-found optimism? After all, a major missing ingredient in the recovery to date has been faith that the economic future would get better. Last year, over half of respondents to a Nielsen global confidence survey still believed the world was in recession. Our take is that the uptrend in consumer confidence has the potential to be lasting, and therefore lead to an acceleration in real consumption over the next several quarters. In contrast, the rise in business optimism is thus far built on shakier fundamentals, and therefore vulnerable to disappointment - at least until corporate executives see signs of a pickup in consumer demand. This view runs counter to the current popular narrative, where businesses - and therefore their stock prices - perform better once a new era of pro-business policies are ushered in. We have noted in past weekly reports that we believe the equity market has overshot and that policy is likely to under-deliver; it is a high bar to assume that the new American government will succeed in implementing a pro-business strategy of lower corporate taxes, increased infrastructure spending and a lighter regulatory burden, while simultaneously avoiding any negative shocks from trade reform and foreign policy blunders.1 Thus, we interpret the surge in business confidence, as reported in various surveys, to be exaggerated and prone to a pullback. On the flipside, a number of cyclical tailwinds have aligned for consumers. Although consumer sentiment surveys also spiked higher since November, this merely extends an already rising trend. Below, we outline the fundamental factors that support stronger consumption growth in the coming quarters. Cost Of Essentials Is Ultra-Low First, the cost of many essential items have declined throughout the recovery, particularly energy prices (Chart 2). The decline in energy prices since 2014 means that spending on energy as a percent of disposable income is near thirty year lows. Likewise, spending on food and interest payments as a share of income is also as low as it has been in thirty years. It is only the seemingly incessant climb in medical payments that keeps overall spending on essential items above 40% of disposable income. Still, at 41% of total disposable income, spending on essential items is far from burdensome relative to historical norms. Chart 1Confidence Surge: Some Trump, ##br##Some Fundamentals Chart 2Essential Spending Burden##br## Is Very Low Incomes Are Rising And Jobs Are Secure Much more importantly, the main driver of consumption trends, income, is on track to accelerate (Chart 3). Despite a moderation in payroll growth, overall income growth is likely to stay perky, now that wage growth is rising. Indeed, as we highlighted in a Special Report in November, the labor market has reached full employment, which is the necessary threshold for a broad-based acceleration in wages (Chart 4). Although there are structural factors that will mitigate rapid wage hikes, it is likely that mild upward pressure on wages will continue throughout 2017 (Chart 5). This is obviously good news because higher wages means that consumers will have the wherewithal to spend more. In addition to this, a tighter job market has boosted job security. Various measures of consumer confidence highlight that over the past year, consumers now have much greater confidence in long-term job prospects. This is important because when job security is high, the propensity to spend instead of save is much higher (Chart 3, bottom panel). Chart 3Income Properties Drives Spending##br## More Than Any Other Factor Chart 4(Part I) Full Employment Calls##br## For Gradually Higher Wages Chart 5Part (II) Full Employment Calls##br## For Gradually Higher Wages Although income is the primary driver of consumption, the trend can be enhanced by several factors, including consumer wealth, the ability of consumer to finance purchases and fiscal handouts. The Wealth Effect Will Remain A Tailwind The wealth effect is the change in spending that accompanies a change, or perceived change, in wealth. The combined wealth effect from real estate and financial markets has been positive for some time (Chart 6). Thus, it is not a new driver of consumer spending, but is nonetheless positive that wealth positions continue to improve. If our forecasts for financial markets and house prices pan out, i.e. that the bull market in stocks continues over time, that bonds experience only a mild bear market and that house price appreciation remains in the mid-single digits, then a positive wealth effect will continue to support consumption in 2017. Debt/Deleveraging Cycle Is Advanced One of the major headwinds to consumer spending since 2008 has been the long, dark shadow of deleveraging. But that process is now well-advanced for the consumer sector. Consumer debt levels as a percent of disposable income peaked in 2008 at over 120%, but are now back under 100%, i.e. at the level that existed prior to the housing bubble and bust. Indeed, the financial obligation ratio for households (both renters and homeowners) is lower today than at any time in the past thirty-five years (Chart 7). Of course, part of this is due to very low interest rates, but our Bank Credit Analyst will show in their February publication that even a 100 basis point rise in borrowing rates from current levels would not lift the interest payment burden to elevated levels by historical standards. Chart 6Wealth Effect Will Remain Positive Chart 7Credit Conditions Are Not Problematic Finally, access to credit remains favorable. In late 2016, lending standards for consumer loans tightened slightly in late 2016, but access to credit generally is not a constraint on spending. A second important point is the ability of those scarred from the housing bust to re-enter the credit market. By law, information about any credit payment delinquencies, including mortgage payment delinquencies, must be removed from an individual's credit record after seven years. Therefore, if no other delinquencies occurred, individuals who experienced a foreclosure see their credit scores recover in seven years and can once again become candidates for mortgage purchases and therefore homeownership. According to research by the Chicago Federal Reserve, since the peak of foreclosures occurred prior to 2011, the bulk of borrowers that foreclosed during the housing bubble and bust are now seeing their credit scores improve. By 2016, both prime and sub-prime borrowers who entered foreclosure between six and nine years earlier (in 2007-10) appear to have recovery rates that are converging with the historical rates of recovery among their predecessor cohorts: nearly 100% of sub-prime borrowers from 2007-2010 who foreclosed have re-attained their previous credit scores, while over 60% of prime borrowers from 2007-2010 re-attained theirs (Chart 8). This means that in large part, the massive drag on housing demand due to poor credit scores from the previous housing bust have been alleviated. Chart 8Share Of Home Mortgage Borrowers Who Recovered ##br##Pre-Delinquency Credit Score After Foreclosure Fiscal Help? President-elect Donald Trump has promised fiscal stimulus in the form of infrastructure spending, corporate tax cuts and personal income tax cuts. The latter could have a positive impact on consumption, although it would likely be small. According to the Tax Policy Centre, if enacted, the highest income taxpayers (0.1 percent of the population, or those with incomes over $3.7 million in 2016 dollars) would experience an average tax cut of nearly $1.1 million, over 14 percent of after tax income. Households in the middle fifth of the income distribution would receive an average tax cut of $ 1,010, or 1.8 percent of after -tax income, while the poorest fifth of households would see their taxes go down an average of $110 or 0.8 percent of their after-tax income.2 The bottom line is that fiscal policy, if Trump's plan is enacted, could be a small positive tailwind for consumption in 2017. Overall, there are increasing signs that the scar tissue from the Great Recession is finally fading and that the improvement in consumer confidence is sustainable. This, combined with better income prospects will give households the wherewithal to spend more freely and will push real GDP growth up to 2.5% or perhaps slightly stronger. Our past research shows that sustainable capital spending cycles only get underway once businesses see clear evidence that consumer final demand is on the upswing. Thus, perhaps a healthier capex cycle will get underway, and businesses will have a fundamental reason to be more upbeat about their prospects. But for now, it seems more likely that businesses are at risk of being disappointed with the speed and efficacy of federal policy changes. On this basis, favoring equity sectors geared to the consumer rather than capex still makes sense. Favor Consumer-Geared Equity Sectors An acceleration in consumer spending will benefit consumer-sensitive equity sectors and would also support our domestic-over-global equity tilt. In our December 5th report, we outlined the bullish prospects and compelling value on offer in the consumer discretionary sector. In addition, our sister publication, U.S. Equity Strategy service just published their annual high conviction equity list. Home improvement retail, and consumer finance stocks were top of the list of high conviction overweights: Home Improvement Retail (Chart 9): Enticing long-term housing prospects argue for looking through the recent rise in mortgage rates. And as highlighted above, consumers have only recently started re-levering, with banks more than willing to facilitate renewed appetite for mortgage debt. In addition, remodeling activity is booming and anecdotes of house flipping activity picking up steam are corroborating that the housing market is vibrant. Now that house prices have recently overtaken the 2006 all-time highs, the incentive to upgrade and remodel should accelerate. While the recent backup in bond yields has been a setback for housing affordability, the U.S. consumer is not priced out of the housing market. Yields are rising in tandem with job security and wages. Mortgage payments remain below the long-term average as a share of income and effective mortgage rates remain near generationally low levels. Consumer Finance (Chart 10): This group offers early-cyclical exposure and is levered to the rising interest rate environment and debt-financed consumer spending. Chart 9Home Improvement Retail Stocks Chart 10Consumer Finance Stocks Importantly, higher interest rates have boosted credit card interest rate spreads (the industry's equivalent net interest margin metric), underscoring that the next leg up in relative share prices will be earnings led. This group is well-placed to take advantage of the improving consumer trends discussed above. Lenka Martinek, Vice President U.S. Investment Strategy lenka@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see U.S. Investment Strategy Weekly Report "Q&A: The Top Ten", dated November 21, 2016, available at usis.bcaresearch.com 2 http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/analysis-donald-trumps-revised-tax-plan/full Appendix Monthly Asset Allocation Model Update Our Asset Allocation (AA) model provides an objective assessment of the outlook for relative returns across equities, Treasuries and cash. It combines valuation, cyclical, monetary and technical indicators. The model was constructed as a capital preservation tool, and has historically outperformed the benchmark in large part by avoiding major equity bear markets. Please note that our official cyclical asset allocation recommendations deviate at times from the model's recommendation. The model is just one input to our decision process. The model's recommended weightings for the major asset classes are unchanged: neutral equity exposure at 60% (benchmark 60%), slightly overweight Treasury allocation at 40% (benchmark 30%) and underweight cash at 0% (benchmark 10%). The diffusion index of the three components for The Equity Model remained neutral. The technical component retained its "buy" signal, with slightly more advancement in the breadth & trend indicators relative to the momentum indicator. The monetary component, which measures overall liquidity conditions, is still favorable for equities, albeit is moving into less bullish territory. However, on the cyclical front, the earnings-driven component still warrants caution. Even as real operating earnings have marginally improved, they remain at a significant distance from positive economic expectations. Earnings momentum is also sluggish, based on our earnings diffusion index. Our qualitative stance for the allocation of Treasuries in balanced portfolios is neutral (since November 7, 2016) in contrast to the slightly overweight recommendation from our quantitative model, unchanged from last month. Although the valuation and technical components of the bond model are still constructive, the cyclical component is significantly less bullish this month. Chart 11Portfolio Total Returns Chart 12Current Model Recommendations Note: The asset allocation model is not necessarily consistent with the weighting recommendations of the Cyclical Investment Stance. For further information, please see our Special Report "Presenting Our U.S. Asset Allocation Model", February 6, 2009.
Highlights Portfolio Strategy A battle between tighter monetary conditions and the anticipation of fiscal largesse will be a dominant market theme this year. Our high-conviction equity allocation calls do not require making a major directional global economic bet, or second guessing the Fed's desire to continue tightening. The bulk of our calls could currently be considered contrarian, based on recent market momentum and sub-surface relative valuation swings. Recent Changes S&P Insurance Index - Downgrade to high-conviction underweight. Nasdaq Biotech Index - Downgrade to high-conviction underweight. Feature Stocks have already paid for a significant acceleration in earnings and economic growth this year and beyond. Fourth quarter earnings season will be the first real test of investor expectations since the post-election market surge. While recent data have been encouraging, forward corporate profit guidance is unlikely to be robust in the face of the U.S. dollar juggernaut. Currently, the hope is that fiscal stimulus will offset tighter monetary settings, ultimately delivering a higher plane of economic activity. The major risks are that the economy loses momentum before fiscal spending cranks up, and/or that profits diverge from a more resilient economic performance than liquidity conditions forecast. Indeed, fiscal stimulus isn't slated to accelerate until next year (Chart 1), while the impact of anti-growth market moves is far more imminent. Our Reflation Gauge has plunged, heralding economic disappointment (Chart 1). With the economy near full employment, Fed hawkishness could persist even in the face of any initial evidence of economic cooling. Under these conditions, the gap between nominal GDP and 10-year Treasury yields could turn negative in the first half of the year (Chart 2), which would be a major warning sign for stocks. Chart 1Fiscal Stimulus Is Still A Long Way Off Chart 2Warning Signal As a result, while the market has recently been focused almost solely on return, our emphasis at this juncture is on minimizing risk. That is consistent with the historic market performance during Fed tightening cycles. Going back to the early-1970s and using the last seven Fed interest rate hiking periods, it is evident that non-cyclical sector relative performance benefits immensely on both a 12 and 24 month horizon from the onset of Fed tightening (Charts 3 and 4). Cyclical sectors typically lag the broad market, while financials generally market perform1. Chart 312-Month Performance After Fed Hikes Chart 424-Month Performance After Fed Hikes Some of the other major macro forces that are likely to influence the broad market and sectoral trends are: Ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar and its drag on top-line growth: loose fiscal policy and tight monetary policy is a classic recipe for currency strength. Tack on high and rising interest rate differentials due to policy divergences with the rest of the world (Chart 5), and exchange rate strength is likely to persist in the absence of a major domestic economic downturn. A tough-talking Fed. Wage growth is accelerating and broadening out, and will sharpen the Fed's focus on inflation expectations. With dollar strength constraining revenue growth potential, strong wage gains are profit margin sapping (Chart 2). A divergence between economic growth and profit performance, i.e. stronger growth is unlikely to feed into equal growth in corporate sector earnings given the squeeze on profit margins from a recovery in labor's ability to garner a larger share of aggregate income. Disappointment and/or uncertainty as to the timing and rollout of the much anticipated fiscal spending programs and unfunded tax cuts. Favoring domestic vs. global exposure will remain a key theme. Emerging markets (EM) have not validated the sharp jump in the global vs. domestic stocks, nor cyclical vs. defensives (Chart 6). Chart 5Greenback Is A Drag##br## On S&P 500 Top Line Growth Chart 6Mind##br## The Gap EM stocks are pro-cyclical, and outperform when economic growth prospects are perceived to be improving. The surging U.S. dollar is a growth impediment for many developing countries with large foreign liabilities to service. The U.S. PMI is gaining vs. the Chinese and euro area PMI (Chart 7, second panel), heralding a rebound in cyclical share price momentum. World export growth remains anemic and will remain so based on EM currency trends (Chart 7). When compared with the reacceleration in U.S. retail sales, the outlook for domestically-sourced profits is even brighter. The other key sectoral theme is to favor areas geared to the consumer rather than the corporate sector. Consumer income statements and balance sheets are far healthier than those of the corporate sector (Chart 8). As a result, they are in a more propitious position to spend and expand. Chart 7Domestics Will Rise To The Occasion Chart 8Consumers Trump The Corporate Sector We expect all of these forces to truncate rally attempts in 2017. The market is already stretching far enough technically to flag risk of a potentially sizeable correction in the first quarter, i.e. greater than 10%, particularly given the significant tightening in monetary conditions and overheating bullish sentiment that have developed. In other words, it is not an environment to chase the post-election winners, nor turn bearish on the losers that have been eschewed. Against this backdrop, we are introducing our top ten high-conviction calls for 2017. As always, these calls are fundamentally-based and we expect them to have longevity and/or meaningful relative return potential, rather than just reflect recent momentum trends. We recognize the difficulty of trading in and out of positions on a short-term basis. Energy Services - Overweight Chart 9Playable Rally The energy sector scores well in relative performance terms when the Fed is hiking interest rates2, supporting a high-conviction overweight in the energy services group. OPEC's agreement to curtail production should hasten supply/demand rebalancing that was already slated to occur via non-OPEC production declines through 2017. U.S. shale producers slashed capital expenditures by 65% from 2014 to 2016, and the International Oil Companies reduced capital expenditures by 40% over the same period. OPEC's decision to trim output should mitigate downside commodity price risks, providing debt and equity markets with confidence to restore capital availability to the sector. With easier access to capital, producers, especially shale, will be able to accelerate drilling programs in a stable commodity price environment. The three factors traditionally required to sustain a playable rally are now in place. The rig count has troughed. The growth in OECD oil inventories has crested. The latter is consistent with a gradual rise in the number of active drilling rigs. Finally, global oil production growth is falling steadily. Pricing power is likely to be slow to recover this cycle given the scope of previous capacity excesses, but even a move to neutral would remove a major drag and reduce the associated share price risk premium (Chart 9). Consumer Staples - Overweight 2016 delivered a number of company specific body blows to the consumer staples sector, most notably concerns about the pharmacy benefit manger pricing model, which undermined the retail drug store group. Thereafter, the sector was shunned on a macro level following the election, as it was used as a source of capital to fund aggressive purchases in more cyclical sectors. This has set the stage for a contrarian buying opportunity in a high quality, defensive sector with one of the best track records during Fed tightening cycles3. The sector is now closing in on an undervalued extreme, in relative terms, having already reached such a reading in technical terms (Chart 10). Our Cyclical Macro Indicator is climbing, supported by the persistent rise in consumers' preference for saving. The latter heralds an increase in outlays at non-cyclical retailers relative to sales at more discretionary stores. Importantly, consumer staples exports have reaccelerated, despite the strong U.S. dollar, pointing to a further acceleration in sector sales growth, and by extension, free cash flow. The strong U.S. dollar is a major boon, from an historical perspective, given that it typically creates increased global economic and market volatility. The latter is starting to pick up (Chart 10). A strong currency, particularly bilaterally against China, also implies a reduction in the cost of imported goods sold, and heralds a relative performance rebound (Chart 11). Chart 10Contrarian Buy Chart 11China To The Rescue? Home Improvement Retail - Overweight Enticing long-term housing prospects argue for looking through the recent rise in mortgage rates. Household formation is reaccelerating, as full employment is boosting consumer confidence, and clocking at a higher speed than housing starts. The implication is that pent-up housing demand will be unleashed. In fact, consumers have only recently started re-levering, with banks more than willing to facilitate renewed appetite for mortgage debt. Remodeling activity is booming and anecdotes of house flipping activity picking up steam are corroborating that the housing market is vibrant. Now that house prices have recently overtaken the 2006 all-time highs, the incentive to upgrade and remodel should accelerate. While the recent backup in bond yields has been a setback for housing affordability, the U.S. consumer is not priced out of the housing market. Yields are rising in tandem with job security and wages. Mortgage payments remain below the long-term average as a share of income and effective mortgage rates remain near generationally low levels. Building supply store construction growth has plumbed to the lowest level since the history of the data. Historically, capacity restraint has represented a boost to home improvement retail (HIR) profit margins and has been inversely correlated with industry sales growth. Stable housing data and improving operating industry metrics entice us to put the compellingly valued S&P HIR on our high-conviction buy list for 2017 (Chart 12). Chart 12Benefiting From Enticing##br## Long-Term Housing Prospects Chart 13Healthy Consumer Is A Boon##br## To Consumer Finance Stocks Consumer Finance - Overweight We are focusing our early-cyclical exposure on overweighting the still bruised S&P consumer finance index. This group is levered to the rising interest rate environment and debt-financed consumer spending. The selloff in the 10-year Treasury bond has been closely correlated with relative performance gains and the current message is to expect additional firming in the latter (Chart 13, top panel). Importantly, higher interest rates have boosted credit card interest rate spreads (the industry's equivalent net interest margin metric), underscoring that the next leg up in relative share prices will be earnings led (Chart 13, bottom panel). On the consumer front, consumer finances are healthy, the job market is vibrant and consumer income expectations are on the rise. In addition, house prices have vaulted to fresh all-time highs and are still expanding on a y/y basis. The positive wealth effect provides motivation for consumers to run down savings rates (Chart 13, second & third panels). Health Care Equipment - Overweight Health care equipment (HCE) stocks have been de-rated alongside the broad health care index, trading at a mere market multiple and below the historical mean, representing a buy opportunity. Revenue growth has been climbing at a double digit clip (Chart 14, third panel) and the surging industry shipments-to-inventories ratio is signaling that still depressed relative sales growth expectations will surprise to the upside (Chart 14, top panel). Synchronized global growth is also encouraging for U.S. medical equipment exports, despite the U.S. dollar's recent appreciation. The ageing population in the developed markets along with pent up demand for health care services in the emerging markets where a number of countries are developing public safety nets, bode well for HCE long-term demand prospects. The bottom panel of Chart 14 shows that the global PMI has been an excellent leading indicator of HCE exports and the current message is positive. The recent contraction in valuation multiples suggests that sales are expected to disappoint in the coming year, an outlook that appears overly cautious, especially within the context of the nascent improvement in industry return on equity (Chart 14, second panel). Chart 14HCE Stocks Are Cheap Given##br## Improving Final Demand Outlook Chart 15More Than##br## Meets The Eye REITs - Overweight REITs have traded as if the back up in global bond yields will persist indefinitely, and that the level of interest rates is the only factor that drives relative performance. Improving cash flows and cheap valuations suggest that REITs can decouple from bond yields. Our REIT Demand Indicator (RDI) has climbed into positive territory, signaling higher rental inflation. The latter is already outpacing overall CPI by a wide margin. The RDI is also positively correlated with commercial property prices, implying more new highs ahead. That will support higher net asset values. While increased supply is a potential sore spot, particularly in the residential space, multifamily housing starts have rolled over relative to the total, suggesting that new apartment builds are diminishing. As discussed in previous research reports, contrary to popular perception, relative performance is also depressed from a structural perspective. REIT relative performance is trading well below its long-term trend, a starting point which has historically overwhelmed any negative pressure from a Fed tightening cycle (Chart 15). Tech Hardware Storage & Peripherals - Underweight The S&P technology hardware storage & peripherals (THSP) sector is a disinflationary play (10-year treasury yield change shown inverted, second panel, Chart 16) and benefits when prices are deflating, not when there are whiffs of inflation4. The tech sector has the highest foreign sales/EPS exposure among the top 11 sectors, and the persistent rise in the greenback is weighing on export prospects for the THSP sub-index (Chart 16, third panel), and by extension top and bottom line growth. Computer and electronic products new order growth has fallen sharply recently, warning that THSP sales growth will remain downbeat. Industry investment is also probing multi-year lows (not shown). Asian inventory destocking is ongoing, which will pressure selling prices, but the end of this liquidation phase would be a signal that the worst will soon be over. Technical conditions are bearish. A pennant formation signals that a breakdown looms. Chart 16Tech Stocks Hate Reflation Chart 17Shy Away, Don't Be Brave Biotech - Underweight The Nasdaq biotech index is following the BCA Mania Index, which includes previous burst bubbles in a broad array of asset classes. The top panel of Chart 17 shows that if history at least rhymes, biotech bubble deflation is slated to continue. Only 45 stocks in the NASDAQ biotech index have positive 12-month forward earnings estimates, comprising 27% of the 164 companies in the index according to Bloomberg. There is still a lot of air to be taken out of the biotech bubble. Historically, interest rates and relative performance have been inversely correlated. The back up in bond yields and Fed tightening represent a draining in liquidity conditions which bodes ill for higher beta and more speculative investments. The biotech derating has been earnings driven and a sustained multiple compression period looms, especially given the sector's poor sales prospects (Chart 17, bottom panel) Worrisomely, not only have biotech stocks fallen despite Trump's win, but recent speculative zeal (buoyant equity sentiment and resurging margin debt, not shown) has also failed to reinvigorate biotech equities. The NASDAQ biotech index is a sell (ETF ticker: IBB:US). Industrials - Underweight The industrials sector was added to our high-conviction underweight list late last year so the turn in calendar does not require a change in outlook. The sector has discounted massive domestic fiscal stimulus and disregarded the competitive drag on earnings from the U.S. dollar, trading as if a profit boom is imminent. Recent traction in surveys of industrial activity is a plus, but is more a reflection of an improvement in corporate sentiment and is unlikely to translate into imminent industrials sector profit improvement. The U.S. dollar surge is a direct threat to any benefit from an increase in domestic infrastructure or private sector investment spending. Commodity prices and EM drag when the dollar is strong. Chronic surplus EM industrial capacity remains a source of deflationary pressure for their currencies, economies and U.S. industrial companies. U.S. dollar strength warns of renewed pricing power pressure (Chart 18). Non-tech industrial capacity is growing faster than output, and capital goods imports prices are contracting (Chart 18). Tack on the relentless surge in the U.S. dollar, and a new deflationary wave appears inevitable. Relative forward earnings momentum is already negative, and is likely to remain so given the barriers to a top-line recovery, and a soaring domestic wage bill. The sector is not priced for lackluster earnings. Chart 18Fade The Bounce Chart 19Advance Is Precarious Insurance - Underweight Insurance stocks have benefited from the upward shift in the yield curve and the re-pricing of the overall financials sector, but the advance is precarious. Previously robust insurance pricing power has cracked. The CPI for household insurance is barely growing. The latter is typically correlated with auto premiums, underscoring that they may also slip (Chart 19). While higher interest rates are positive for investment portfolio income, they also imply mark-to-market losses on bond portfolios and incent insurers to underwrite at a faster pace with more lenient standards, which is often a precursor to increased competition and less pricing power. Insurance companies have added massively to cost structures in recent years (Chart 19), while the rest of the financials sector was shedding labor costs. Relative valuations have enjoyed a step-function upshift, but the path of least resistance will be lower for as long as relative consumer spending on insurance products retreats on the back of pricing pressure (Chart 19). 2016 Review... Last year's high-conviction calls were hot out of the gate, and generally had very strong gains until the late-summer/early-fall, but were hijacked by the post-election surge in a few sectors. As a result of the end of year fireworks, our high conviction calls trailed the market by just under 2% for the year ending 2016. Had we had the foresight to predict a Trump win and a massive market rally, we could have closed our positions in early November for comfortably positive gains. In total, our average booked gains in the year were 3% in excess of the broad market since the positions were initiated. We are also closing our pair trades, and will re-introduce a number of new trades in the near future. Anastasios Avgeriou, Vice President Global Alpha Sector Strategy & U.S. Equity Strategy anastasios@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see the U.S. Equity Strategy Special Report titled: "Sector Performance And Fed Tightening Cycles: An Historical Roadmap", available at uses.bcaresearch.com. 2 Ibid 3 Ibid 4 Please see the U.S. Equity Strategy Special Report titled: "Equity Sector Winners And Losers When Inflation Climbs", available at uses.bcaresearch.com. Current Recommendations Current Trades Size And Style Views Favor small over large caps. Favor growth over value (downgrade alert).
Highlights The rise in both bond yields and the U.S. dollar represents significant tightening in monetary conditions, which will be difficult for stock prices to digest. Technical indicators suggest that the rally could persist in the near term, but investors should nonetheless prepare a shopping list once prices correct. Both consumer discretionary and health care stocks are appealing longer-term plays that are less expensive than the broad market. Feature The current rally in equity prices is high risk. Since the summer, our main worry for the stock market has been the likelihood of profit disappointments, given that corporations lack pricing power and that the outlook for top-line growth is lackluster. That worry has not gone away, but now the more pressing issue has become the impact on equity prices of the swift and aggressive tightening in monetary conditions via both the bond market sell-off and rise in the dollar (Chart 1). The 10-year Treasury yield is now trading above fair value. True, in the past, equity prices have sustained gains until yields rose much further into undervalued territory, but the big difference this time is that the dollar is rising in tandem. Simultaneous powerful rises in the currency and yields are rare, and typically result in steep market pullbacks. Investors should be on high-alert for this outcome. The possibility that equity market euphoria persists for another month or two should not be ruled out, i.e. until the Fed's next meeting and until there is more clarity on the course of fiscal and trade policy. Indeed, a simple read of technical indicators and market sentiment suggest that the rally could continue, but the risk/reward balance is poor (Chart 2). Chart 1Monetary Conditions Have Changed Chart 2Technicals: Not Flashing A Warning Yet With that in mind, one of the most frequently asked (and difficult) questions we receive is, Where is the value in U.S. equities? Presently, this is akin to looking for deals on New York's Upper 5th Avenue.1 As Chart 3 shows, U.S. equity multiples remain near or at historic (ex. TMT mania) highs. This is true for both small and large caps. And relative to global equity valuations, U.S. stocks appear even more expensive. There are few sectors that we believe offer compelling absolute value today. However, on a relative basis, the Trump rally has caused a flight out of traditional safe havens that has gone too far. For instance, consumer products stocks (household products, beverages and packaged food) are now trading below the broad market P/E multiple, in aggregate, on a trailing 12-month basis (Chart 4). According to our U.S. Equity Strategy service, forward relative returns are typically very robust when the group trades at a discount to the market. Importantly, consumer products stocks have a positive correlation with the U.S. dollar, which means that recent share price weakness represents a buying opportunity. Chart 3No Deals Here Chart 4Good Entry Point To Consumer Products? As highlighted above, we are on high-alert for an equity shakeout, triggered by the rapid rise in bond yields, and reinforced by profit disappointment. Still, we have assembled a short shopping list of sectors that we believe offer long-term upside. Health care and consumer discretionary stocks already offer better value than other areas of the market. Consumer Discretionary Will Last Longer This Cycle We have recommended favoring domestic over global exposure within U.S. equities and, in-line with our U.S. Equity Strategy service, we have favored non-cyclical holdings. But the cyclical interest rate-sensitive consumer discretionary sector deserves more attention, especially given good relative valuations. The recent back-up in bond yields has sent the relative performance of consumer discretionary stocks to a four-year low, once heavyweight Amazon is excluded (Chart 5). Admittedly, this comes on the back of an almost uninterrupted run higher since 2010. Still, since we believe it unlikely that the current back-up in yields can continue much longer, any cooling in bond yields could start a rotation back into consumer discretionary stocks. In last week's Special Report,2 we outlined the case as to why structural headwinds make it highly unlikely that the Fed will need to aggressively tighten in the coming year. In our view, the interest rate backdrop is unlikely to be an insurmountable headwind for this sector. Most importantly, fundamentals for consumer spending have been slowly improving. The labor market is now tight enough that consumers have job security (Chart 6). Incidentally, consumer confidence is now back to historically buoyant levels. The greatest ramification of this is that higher job security historically goes hand in hand with greater demand for credit. Until this point of the cycle, consumption growth has been capped by income growth trends because there has been no appetite to borrow in the aftermath of the Great Recession. We highly doubt that a new debt-fuelled spending spree will get underway, but rising job security should help fuel some credit growth. Chart 5Consumer Discretionary Stocks##br## Should Resume Outperformance Chart 6Consumers: The Future##br## Is Brighter Alongside improved job security, consumers are enjoying a tailwind from a historically light drag on their finances (Chart 6). Consumer spending on essential items, which includes energy costs, interest expense, insurance, taxes, etc. is at multi-decade lows. If BCA's benign forecast for energy prices (around $50 per barrel) and rate backdrop pans out, then there should continue to be ample spending room on discretionary items. The bottom line is that consumer discretionary stocks are one of the few sectors that are trading at historically reasonable valuations. We believe that a combination of a benign rate backdrop, better consumer confidence and a strong dollar will help this sector outperform late into the business cycle. Particular emphasis should be placed on industry groups and companies that can maintain positive pricing power. This includes movie & entertainment and restaurant stocks. Retailers should be de-emphasized until deflationary pressures ease, as we discuss on page 9. Follow The Baby Boomers To...Health Care Stocks In our Special Report last week, we explained how the aging population will continue to have implications for the labor market and wages. We also believe that demographics will eventually have important implications for equity sector outperformance. BCA Research periodically puts forward investment mania candidates. Charles Kindleberger described three conditions that must be met in order to create a financial mania and bubble: a powerful theme that captures the imagination of investors which is often the result of a major economic displacement; low interest rates; and finally, investment vehicles that allow rampant speculation (Chart 7). We believe that the aging of the population and the need for increased resources to service that population could be a powerful theme that captures investors' attention in the coming years. Chart 7A History Of Manias Since the baby boomers came of age (in the 1960s), their massive numbers relative to other age cohorts has given this generation an outsized influence on political, social and economic trends. Put simply, the baby boom generation has had the most clout because of their sheer numbers. And what do baby boomers want now? This age cohort is now focused on prolonging good health for as long as possible! It makes sense, then, any coming pent-up demand for goods and services will focus on health-related spending. As Chart 8 shows, spending on health care increases significantly for the 65-year and over cohort. This massive increase in health care spending has already begun but is likely to increase much more in the coming years. Chart 8Spending On Health Care Accelerates With Age To further highlight this point, in a Special Report last year,3 we made the case that health care will be one of the greatest sources of innovation this cycle. As we highlighted then, government R&D spending on basic research tends to lead practical applications, such as in the 1950s innovation boom after WWII (Chart 9). Currently, government R&D spending is growing much faster in healthcare than in tech. The private sector is also in agreement with tech VC investment still well below its 2000 peak, whereas healthcare is hitting new highs. Chart 9Health Care R&D Spending Is An Outlier Health care relative valuations are significantly below their post-2008 mean (Chart 10). We will explore the potential for health care as a mania candidate in an upcoming Special Report, but our preliminary work suggests that health care stocks should be on the top of investors' shopping lists. Chart 10Long-Term Value In Health Care Stocks Economic Momentum Heating Up? The surprising election results have stolen the financial media's focus away from economic and profit fundamentals in the past few weeks. Admittedly, investors who were focused on the elections did not miss much: the overall picture of economic growth has not changed in recent weeks. Indeed, the Fed's Beige Book of anecdotes on the state of the U.S. economy, released last week, indicates that growth remains mediocre, although sufficient enough for the Fed to raise rates later this month. Nevertheless, we have been monitoring consumer and business confidence closely, as we believe that this will be a key gauge to the likelihood that a more virtuous economic cycle is underway. There is some improvement: Consumer Confidence: A missing ingredient thus far in the recovery has been optimism among households. But that may be finally changing. Surveys of consumer sentiment ticked up markedly in November. As discussed above, this appears mainly to be attributed to better job security as the labor market tightens. If sustained, we view this as a very positive development, since a rising confidence in the outlook allows consumers to take on debt - or at least reduce their savings rate (Chart 6). Business Confidence: Business confidence has mirrored - and even lagged - soggy consumer confidence throughout this cycle. This makes sense, since optimism about a company's future hinges on prospects for demand for its products. In an economy where 70% of GDP is consumption, it is rational that businesses take their cue from consumer sentiment. The most recent ISM manufacturing survey was positive; new orders are rising. Respondent comments were particularly sunny. The bulk of survey responses were collected after the November 8 election and so should be reflective of business attitudes toward the new political administration. Consumer Spending: Black Friday/Cyber Monday sales were reported as lackluster relative to last year, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF). Apparently, about 3 million more shoppers than in 2015 were enticed into stores and onto their computers, but they spent about 3.5% less, while overall sales were down about 1.5% over last year. But the survey also picked up on one of our critical themes: deflation in the retailing sector is still rampant. Price discounting remains a dominant tactic to entice shoppers and over half of the NRF survey respondents reported that deals were "too good to pass up." In real terms, annual consumer spending growth has trended sideways at 2.5%. We see little risk of a slowdown, and in fact as highlighted above, now that consumer confidence has improved, any modest wage gains could lead to an improved spending outlook. All in all, the modest growth backdrop that has characterized the economic recovery since to date is still intact. We are closely watching consumer and business confidence for signs that the economy can or cannot handle the rise in bond yields and dollar: if recent optimism can be maintained, the odds of a more virtuous economic cycle will improve. Lenka Martinek, Vice President U.S. Investment Strategy lenka@bcaresearch.com 1 According to Cushman & Wakefield, New York's Upper 5th Avenue had the highest average rents of any shopping street in the world in 2015. A square foot of retail space cost $3,500. 2 Please see U.S. Investment Strategy Special Report "U.S. Wage Growth: Paid In Full?," dated November 28, 2016, available at usis.bcaresearch.com 3 Please see U.S. Investment Strategy Special Report "The Next Big Thing: How To Profit From Disruptive Innovation," dated March 9, 2015, available at usis.bcaresearch.com
The S&P hotels index had been in a relative performance bear market since late last year when we reduced it to underweight, but downside risks have diminished even though a number of players have lowered 2017 guidance and revenue per room (REVPAR) expectations. A variety of valuation metrics show that the price ratio is plumbing recessionary-type levels. REVPAR should be supported by decent consumer spending. Wage growth, and thus aggregate income, is perking up, job security has risen and income expectations are on the upswing. Consumers are behaving as if income gains will be permanent, given the increase in consumer loan demand. Low fuel prices and the surge in vehicle miles driven are consistent with solid lodging outlays. The latter have recently reaccelerated, and are supporting better than market hotel pricing power. Now that wage inflation has rolled over, the margin squeeze should go on hiatus. The bottom line is that an upgrade to neutral is now in order, locking in a profit of 3% on our underweight recommendation. Please see yesterday's Weekly Report for additional charts and analysis. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5HOTL - MAR, CCL, RCL, WYN.
Housing activity dipped this year. In response, building supply store sales cooled and analysts have been quick to slash both sales and earnings growth estimates for home improvement retailers. However, an overreaction appears to be occurring. There is little indication of a return to punitively deflationary industry conditions and we continue to be encouraged by the long-term outlook. Household formation is accelerating now that the unemployment rate is below 5%. Building permits are below average levels, even excluding the housing bubble period. Consumers have only recently become comfortable taking on mortgage debt, and first time buyers represent a rising share of total home sales. Banks are ready and willing to extend mortgage credit, unlike most other credit. Ergo, housing activity still has legs. While the backup in Treasury yields will no doubt make housing somewhat less affordable, even a 100 basis point rise would not push affordability back to average levels. Mortgage payments would still be well below the long-term average as a share of income, and effective mortgage rates are still extremely low. Therefore, we would not be surprised to see stable housing metrics in the coming months, despite the yield back up. We recommend buying into home improvement retail share price weakness, please see yesterday's Weekly Report for more details. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: BLBG: S5HOMI - HD, LOW.