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The Politburo Shock And European Assets

China’s Politburo announcement is likely to lead to a repricing of China’s growth in the near-term. Read how investors can hedge against this potent threat to our defensive investment stance.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Riksbank Eases Further, Signals Jumbo Cut
In a widely expected move, the Riksbank lowered its policy rate from 3.5% to 3.25% in September, marking its third cut this year. It embarked on its easing cycle in May, leading many other DM central banks, and has been sending increasingly dovish messages…
Daily Insights
Introducing The Global Political Capital Index
BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service introduced a Global Political Capital Index. Investors should favor countries with newly elected government, small government size, and ample room to cut policy rate. Ideally, they should also be in a stable…
Daily Insights
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When Will The RBA Cut Interest Rates?

This insight parses through the RBA’s latest policy decision, and makes recommendations on whether to expect any rate cuts in 2024, and beyond.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
RBA Uninvited To The Global Easing Party
In a widely expected move, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in September. All measures of Australian CPI inflation remain well above the RBA target range. The Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund and other…
Daily Insights
High Bar For ECB Cut In October
The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 bps in September. It did not signal consecutive rate cuts and we highlighted that the short inter-meeting timeframe between September and October provides little scope for ongoing data releases to move the…
Daily Insights
The BoJ’s Dovish Pause
The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.25% in September and signaled it was in no rush to lift rates further. This move follows two hikes this year, one of them unanticipated.   The signaling is consistent with dovish comments in August…
Daily Insights
Japanese Banks Face Crosscurrents
The Bank of Japan’s policy normalization has been accompanied by exceptional outperformance by Japanese banks. Japanese banks have outperformed both the country’s broader market as well as the MSCI ACW Banks index by 10.3% and 2.6%, respectively, so far this…
Daily Insights
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Japan: Escape Velocity Is At A Higher Altitude

In this report, we argue that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to hike interest rates this week, but the relative trajectory of bond yields in Japan is higher. This warrants an underweight position in JGBs and a leveraged bet on a higher yen. The positioning for equity investors is murkier, as progress on corporate reforms is necessary for a rerating in Japanese shares. That is not yet very clear. The bottom line is: Stay long the yen.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Melanie Kermadjian, Chester Ntonifor
Hotter August UK CPI Doesn’t Impact BoE Meeting Outcome
UK headline CPI grew at a stable 2.2% y/y in August, though the core measure accelerated from 3.3% to 3.6%, in line with expectations. An 11.6% annual increase in airfare largely drove core CPI higher, while offsetting contributions from food and alcohol led…
Daily Insights

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