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Currencies

July In Review
No clear risk-on/risk-off pattern emerged from July’s market performance data. On the one hand, consistent with a risk-off environment, US bonds ranked highest in the monthly return distribution, while pro-cyclical industrial metals and oil lagged.…
Daily Insights
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Slowdown Story Remains Intact

The market is pricing in a soft landing, but we see growing signs that the global economy is faltering. Investors should be defensively positioned.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
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The Fed Versus The BoJ: Investment Implications

We assess the investment implications of the BoJ and Fed meetings, and give our take on the next policy moves. We also assess the impact on asset markets.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
On The BoJ's Surprise Hike
The Bank of Japan hiked its policy rate by 15 bps from 0.10% to 0.25% on Wednesday, and announced further quantitative tightening, reducing its pace of monthly bond buying from JPY 6 trillion to JPY 3 trillion. While the central bank had previously…
Daily Insights
The Riksbank Will Stay Dovish
Preliminary estimates suggests that the Swedish economy unexpectedly contracted in Q2. The seasonally adjusted GDP Indicator declined by 0.8% q/q, following a 0.7% Q1 rise in actual GDP growth. Flash estimates lack details and are prone to revisions.…
Daily Insights
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Will The ECB Save The Day?

Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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Tea Leaves From Bond And FX Market Indicators

This report takes a look at bond and FX market technical indicators and calibrates the decision to increase portfolio duration and get long the US dollar.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
UK Services Inflation Still Too High For BoE's Comfort
UK’s CPI growth stands right on the Bank of England’s (BoE) 2% target. However, services inflation remains sticky, growing at a constant 5.7% y/y in June. Moreover, the deceleration in wage growth remains insufficient to temper inflationary pressures in the…
Daily Insights
Stealth Intervention By The BoJ?
The yen rallied against most major currencies in July and has climbed close to 3.5% so far this month against the greenback. Resurfacing suspicion of central bank interventions to prop up the currency is one of the factors supporting this month’s strength.…
Daily Insights
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Europe Trembles At the Trump Tremor

As Trump’s victory odds rise, the underperformance of European equities deepens. How negative would a global trade war be for European assets?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary

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