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Currencies

According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the South African election presents a window of opportunity for productivity-boosting structural reforms, such as privatization, to coincide with monetary and fiscal easing necessary to fend off…

In this insight, we update our thinking on the recent BoJ move in terms of positioning for the yen and JGB yields.

The new national unity government in South Africa creates a geopolitical opportunity that investors should not bet against in the short term. A broad-based rally is likely to unfold relative to other emerging markets. However, structural problems and distrust within the new coalition hold out significant risks over the long run.

In a largely expected move, the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0-0.1% in June. It maintained the pace of bond buying at JPY 6tr per month but signaled it would lay out a plan to reduce its balance sheet next month, without offering any…
The Bank of Japan exited negative interest rate policy in March, but subsequent softer-than-expected CPI inflation prints have complicated its path towards tightening. The central bank is widely expected to stay put when it meets this week. Governor Kazuo…
The UK unemployment rate surprised to the upside in the 3-month period ending in April, ticking up to 4.4% against expectations it would remain stable at March’s originally reported 4.3%. Concurrently, wage growth remains elevated. The 3-month measure of…

The ECB is now firmly in easing mode, even if it refuses to pre-commit to a specific rate path. What does this data dependency mean for the euro and European yields?

A short insight on the ECB and near-term implications for European asset markets.

According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, Mexican politics will remain stable and overall supportive for markets. Sheinbaum is a credible policymaker and technocrat whose rhetoric is not as ideological or divisive as her predecessor’s. …

In this insight, we provide an update on the Canadian economy, given yesterday’s rate cut, and implications for Canadian assets.