Developed Countries
Labor market cracks reinforce long duration and steepener positioning as growth risks mount. Job market data has looked strong on the surface, but the details of the June employment and JOLTS reports confirm a slowing trend within the “low hiring, low firing”…
Relative growth and inflation trends point to a narrower UST/Bund spread. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Robert Timper, Global Fixed Income Strategist. This week, our rates strategists introduced a new US/Euro Area Relative Duration Indicator, designed to…
Canada’s stronger currency and tightening financial conditions point to further BoC easing and support long Canadian bond positions. The CAD has appreciated this year alongside the global push to diversify away from USD assets, which has weakened the US…
Stronger-than-expected June payrolls rule out a July Fed cut, but the report does not derail the case for long duration and curve steepeners. Nonfarm payrolls printed at 147k, with the two prior months revised up by 16k, leaving the 3-month average at 150k.…
Our Geopolitical strategists warn that structural and cyclical risks remain elevated despite a fading threat of acute shocks, and recommend booking profits ahead of tariffs and weaker data. President Trump is passing his signature legislation and pivoting to…
ISM Services data confirm slowing growth and cooling inflation, reinforcing a defensive allocation stance. The index rose slightly to 50.8 in June from 49.9 in May, with new orders rebounding into expansion at 51.3. However, the employment subcomponent…
Acute geopolitical risks, like a massive oil shock, may be abating. But structural geopolitical risk remains high and could upset a blithe market. Cyclical economic risks are underrated as the US slows down and China continues to stumble. Investors should book some profits in anticipation of tariff implementation and a downturn in hard economic data.
May JOLTS data suggest labor market softening beneath the surface, reinforcing a defensive stance across portfolios. Job openings rose to 7.7m from 7.4m, beating estimates, while quits ticked up to 3.3m and layoffs fell to 1.6m. However, hiring edged lower to…
June Eurozone inflation data and soft growth backdrop support further ECB easing and reinforce the case for long European bond exposure. Flash HICP inflation ticked up to 2.0% y/y from 1.9%, while core inflation held steady at 2.3%, both in line with…
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists expect lower interest rates to revive a sluggish US economy, prompting upgrades to duration and equities. Although not in recession, the US is enduring one of the weakest non-recessionary years on record, weighed down…