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Developed Countries

Investor Sentiment Turns Positive In The Eurozone
The Eurozone Sentix Economic index improved from -3.6 to 0.3 in June, easily surpassing expectations of a more muted improvement to -1.7. Notably, the Expectation and Current Situation subindices rose to 28-month and 13-month highs of 10 and -9, respectively.…
Daily Insights
Fade The Signal From The NFIB Survey
The NFIB’s Small Business Optimism (SBO) Index came in at 90.5 in May, above expectations that it would remain flat at 89.7. Despite the upside surprise, the Russell 2000 index closed down 40 basis points on Tuesday while the S&P 500 gained 30 bps to…
Daily Insights
Fade The Outcome Of The European Elections
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the European parliamentary election was not an earthquake. It saw an improvement in right-leaning political groups and a deterioration in both centrist and left-leaning groups, as expected. …
Daily Insights
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EU Election: Will Policy Be Affected?

Europe did not witness a major policy reversal. Inflationary pressures are coming down, enabling the ECB to cut rates and European states to maintain soft budgets. Geopolitical challenges ensure that European parties continue to cooperate on national defense, economic security, and energy security.

Geopolitical Strategy, European Investment Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jeremie Peloso
US Consumer Credit Growth Disappoints In April
Total consumer credit rose by USD 6.4 billion in April (to USD 5,053 billion outstanding), from a USD 1.1 billion decrease in March (a large downward revision to the USD 6.3 billion rise initially reported) and significantly shy of expectations for a USD 10…
Daily Insights
Mixed Messages From Swedish Indicators
Sweden is a small export-oriented economy and its high sensitivity to global trade makes it a good bellwether of global growth developments. The headwinds from high borrowing costs are relatively more pronounced in Sweden where a large share of households…
Daily Insights
Underweight TSX Despite Commodity, Currency And Valuation Tailwinds
A decade of Canadian equity underperformance has led to a historical discount relative to the S&P 500. Sector composition largely explains this underperformance. Banks and natural resources stocks are overrepresented in the TSX while the US stock market…
Daily Insights
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The One About Energy And Aerospace & Defense

We close our overweights to Energy and Aerospace & Defense. The macroeconomic backdrop is deteriorating for Energy. As for A&D, the good news is already priced in.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
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The First ECB Cut Of Many

The ECB is now firmly in easing mode, even if it refuses to pre-commit to a specific rate path. What does this data dependency mean for the euro and European yields?

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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Are We There Yet?

Although the comprehensive economic surprise indexes continued weakening in May, the metrics in our equity downgrade checklist haven’t softened enough to check more boxes now. While we continue to expect the US economy will enter a recession before year end, it is not yet certain and we remain tactically neutral.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta

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