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Developed Countries

MacroQuant Is Now Bearish On US Equities
In its latest report, BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service provides an update on its MacroQuant model. The overall equity score declined in April, finishing the month at the 29th percentile, which is enough to prompt the model to assign US…
Daily Insights
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Europe Exorcises Its Inflation, The US Stays Haunted

Wild hopes for US rate cuts got shattered, exactly as we predicted. But given the different incentives that the Fed and ECB now face, the relative pricing between the Fed and the ECB could widen further in the coming months. We discuss the implications for rates, the dollar, and the relative positioning in US versus European equities.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Sticky Inflation, Faltering Growth

Central banks are in a dilemma whether to prioritize supporting growth or bringing inflation back to target. This is unlikely to end well. Investors should be defensively positioned.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
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MacroQuant Model Update: MacroQuant Turns Bearish On Stocks

MacroQuant downgraded equities from neutral to underweight on a 1-to-3 month horizon. The model suggests increasing exposure to cash.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
The Fed's Favored Wage Growth Measure Accelerates
The Q1 US Employment Cost Index (ECI) accelerated at a faster-than-expected 1.2% q/q rate, from 0.9% q/q in Q4. On a year-on-year basis, it rose by 4.2% in Q1 and follows a similar annual increase in the previous quarter. The Fed is not expected to cut…
Daily Insights
On US Home Price Resilience
The house price index from the Federal Housing Finance Agency grew by 1.2% in February, improving from a decline of 0.1% previously, and above expectations of 0.1%. Meanwhile the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose by 7.3% on a year-on-year basis in…
Daily Insights
Eurozone Inflation Remains Hot
Euro area inflation and GDP numbers were released on Tuesday. The preliminary harmonized core consumer price index came in at 0.7% on a month-on-month basis, a decrease from 1.1% in March. The preliminary year-on-year core CPI also decreased, clocking in at…
Daily Insights
The Euro Inflation-Linked Golden-Rule
In its latest report, BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service introduces the latest addition in its framework for investing in global inflation-linked bonds (ILB). To apply the Euro Inflation-Linked Golden Rule, investors should follow these…
Daily Insights
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Nuclear-Friendly Megatrends

AI, EVs, and reshoring will lead to a massive surge in demand for electricity. Carbon-free, cheap, baseload nuclear energy stands to greatly benefit from these megatrends going forward.

BCA Special Reports by Jeremie Peloso, Guy Russell
Could the Euro Be Set For A Rebound?
EUR/USD has fallen by almost 5% since July last year. There are fundamental reasons why this move has taken place. The US economy has shown significant more resilience than the European one. Consumption continues to be strong, and GDP is still growing at a…
Daily Insights

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