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Developed Countries

Trimmed Mean PCE: Disinflation Is No Longer Broadening
The trimmed mean PCE was released on Friday by the Dallas Fed. This measure removes the top 31% of items with the highest inflation and the bottom 25% of items with the lowest inflation within the PCE basket. Historically, it has served as an accurate gauge…
Daily Insights
Could the Euro Be Set For A Rebound?
EUR/USD has fallen by almost 5% since July last year. There are fundamental reasons why this move has taken place. The US economy has shown significant more resilience than the European one. Consumption continues to be strong, and GDP is still growing at a…
Daily Insights
May FOMC Preview
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, the May FOMC meeting is unlikely to cause a stir in fixed income markets. The Fed will hold an FOMC meeting next week and while it will not update its economic or interest rate projections, we will be…
Daily Insights
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The Golden Rule Of Investing In Euro Area Inflation-Linked Bonds

In this Special Report, we introduce our Euro Inflation-Linked Golden Rule – a framework to profitably trade and invest in Euro Area inflation-linked bonds versus nominals. The Rule is currently signaling that nominal government bonds should outperform inflation-linked bonds over the next year as disinflation in the Euro Area continues.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, European Investment Strategy by Robert Timper
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Peak Divergence

Investors anticipate a record growth gap between the US and the Eurozone in 2024. Does this skewed expectation create market opportunities?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
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The Big Bank Beige Book, April 2024

The latest edition of our Big Bank Beige Book suggests the expansion remains intact, though weakness in C’s private-label credit card portfolio could be a harbinger of distress among lower-income consumers. We remain tactically neutral with a bias to turn defensive once clearer signs of a recession emerge.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
US Economy Remains Hot
Friday’s US Personal Consumption Expenditure report for March showed headline and core PCE inflation both came in at 0.3% m/m, in line with expectations. Meanwhile the increase in annual headline PCE number from 2.5% y/y to 2.7% y/y, was more pronounced than…
Daily Insights
BoJ Stays Put Amid Downside Inflation Surprise
The Tokyo inflation release for April came in on the soft side on Friday, with every single metric coming in below expectations. Tokyo headline inflation declined from 2.6% y/y to 1.8% y/y, versus expectations of a much more muted decline to 2.5% y/y.…
Daily Insights
What Is Driving The CAD?
The Canadian dollar typically has two main drivers: interest rate differentials and commodity prices, especially oil prices. However, the relationship between the CAD and oil has broken down recently. As our FX strategists have highlighted, the key reason for…
Daily Insights
BoE Needs To Weaken Economy To Kill Inflation
According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service, a hard landing is the only way to solve the UK inflation problem. Sticky inflation and lingering inflation pressures have made the BoE’s job much more challenging. The UK economy weakened in…
Daily Insights

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