Developed Countries
US, European and Japanese small caps have underperformed their large cap counterparts by 22.6%, 15.3% and 10.1% respectively since 2021. They now face conflicting forces. On the one hand, they are extremely beaten down and cheap, potentially offering a good…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, a comprehensive review of leading US labor market indicators reveals that most are now flashing red. This includes the “Mel rule,” a refinement of the better known but less timely Sahm rule. …
At today’s monetary policy meeting, the ECB gave strong hints that rate cuts will begin as soon as the next meeting in June. In this Insight, we share our thoughts on today’s meeting and discuss the implications for European bond yields and the euro.
Thursday’s US Produce Price Index report for March shows headline PPI came in below expectations on both a month-over-month (0.2%) and annual (2.1%) basis. Meanwhile, PPI ex food and energy came in at 0.2% m/m (in line with expectations), and 2.4% y/y(above…
As expected, the Governing Council of the ECB kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday. In its statement, the ECB reiterated that most measures of underlying inflation were easing, wage growth was moderating, and firms were absorbing the rise in labor costs…
Treasurys have sold off substantially since the beginning of the year – the result of stickier-than-anticipated inflation and the repricing of Fed interest rate expectations. Some commentators have warned that there is scope for this selloff to continue amid…
In terms of interest rate bets, markets are now roughly neutral on whether the Fed or Bank of Canada move the most in the next 12 months. BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service’s bias is that it will be the BoC (with more cuts). Thus, a…
In this insight, we calibrate our investment views based on the latest Bank of Canada decision.
Headline inflation came in at 0.4% on a MoM basis and 3.5% on an annual basis, beating expectations of 0.3% and 3.4% respectively. Meanwhile core inflation came in at 0.4% on a MoM basis and 3.8% on an annual basis, beating expectations of 0.3% and 3.7%…
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 5% on Wednesday, in line with expectations. In his opening remarks following the announcement, Governor Tiff Macklem was cautiously dovish: “We don't want to leave monetary policy this restrictive longer…