Developed Countries
US Initial jobless claims declined from 222 thousand to 211 thousand in the week ending April 5, below expectations of a less pronounced decrease to 215 thousand. On a seasonally unadjusted basis, the number increased to 214 thousand. This initial claims…
The total return of a carry strategy that is long high-yielding currencies like the Brazilian real and the South African rand and short a funding currency like the Japanese yen is pointing to a recovery in global growth. Carry trades distribute liquidity…
US, European and Japanese small caps have underperformed their large cap counterparts by 22.6%, 15.3% and 10.1% respectively since 2021. They now face conflicting forces. On the one hand, they are extremely beaten down and cheap, potentially offering a good…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, a comprehensive review of leading US labor market indicators reveals that most are now flashing red. This includes the “Mel rule,” a refinement of the better known but less timely Sahm rule. …
At today’s monetary policy meeting, the ECB gave strong hints that rate cuts will begin as soon as the next meeting in June. In this Insight, we share our thoughts on today’s meeting and discuss the implications for European bond yields and the euro.
Thursday’s US Produce Price Index report for March shows headline PPI came in below expectations on both a month-over-month (0.2%) and annual (2.1%) basis. Meanwhile, PPI ex food and energy came in at 0.2% m/m (in line with expectations), and 2.4% y/y(above…
As expected, the Governing Council of the ECB kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday. In its statement, the ECB reiterated that most measures of underlying inflation were easing, wage growth was moderating, and firms were absorbing the rise in labor costs…
Treasurys have sold off substantially since the beginning of the year – the result of stickier-than-anticipated inflation and the repricing of Fed interest rate expectations. Some commentators have warned that there is scope for this selloff to continue amid…
In terms of interest rate bets, markets are now roughly neutral on whether the Fed or Bank of Canada move the most in the next 12 months. BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service’s bias is that it will be the BoC (with more cuts). Thus, a…
In this insight, we calibrate our investment views based on the latest Bank of Canada decision.