Developed Countries
The Eurozone Sentix Economic index improved from -12.9 to -10.5 in March, marking a fifth month of improved sentiment amongst investors and economic agents. Notably, the Expectation subindex rose to a 25-month high of -2.3 from -5.5 in February. The Current…
Gold has had a stunning rally over the past few weeks, gaining 9.2% since February 14 and reaching consecutive all-time highs last week before paring back some of its gains. Indeed, the drivers of gold have moved in a bullish direction for the yellow metal.…
The latest MBA weekly survey shows mortgage applications rose 7.1% in the week ending March 8 on the back of a 4.7% increase in purchases and a 12.2% rise in refinancing, marking the second consecutive weekly increase. Higher mortgage activity comes amid…
There is a general consensus among BCA Research strategists that a US recession is highly likely over the next two years. While last month our Global Investment strategists reduced the probability that a recession will materialize in H1 2024 and raised the…
After briefly weakening in January, AUD/CAD has once again been moving higher over the past few weeks. Indeed, BCA’s Intermediate Term Technical Indicator is back to neutral from overbought territory, paving the way for this rebound. The question going…
S&P 500: A Look Beneath The Surface Of Fresh Record Highs
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According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, ‘bad unemployment’ is on the rise in the US, despite resilient growth. There are two ways that you can become unemployed. Either by losing your job. Or by entering the labour force to look for a job. The…
The Joshi rule real-time US recession indicator remains at an elevated 0.154 versus its recession event horizon of 0.200, indicating weakening US labour demand. With the last mile of US disinflation requiring labour demand to ‘catch down’ with labour supply, investors should watch the Joshi rule very closely to pre-empt a potential tipping-point. Plus: tactically long Portugal versus Europe, and wheat versus cotton; and tactically short USD/CLP, Qualcomm (QCOM), and Salesforce (CRM).
US headline CPI inflation accelerated from 0.3% m/m to 0.4% m/m in February, in line with expectations. A rise in gasoline prices and shelter inflation accounted for 60% of this increase. Meanwhile, the annual rate of change in the headline index unexpectedly…
Although the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q1 have been trending lower, the latest 2.5% print (which is down from 3.4% a month ago) still suggests that economic conditions are resilient in the US. Yet small business owners are less optimistic. The results…