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Developed Countries

Easier Financial Conditions Have Made Their Way To "Main Street"
Economic sentiment has improved since the December FOMC meeting, with positive momentum extending into February. The chart above neatly summarizes the impact that the Fed’s projected easing has had on sentiment, both on “Wall Street” and “Main Street”. The…
Daily Insights
The Profound Underperformance Of European Equities
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the underperformance of European assets relative to the US is due its lagging productivity, even after adjusting for sectoral compositions in their stock markets. Structurally, European…
Daily Insights
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Risks To Our View

We feel as good about spurning the soft-landing narrative today as we did about spurning the recession narrative a year ago, but we are not giving into complacency. This week’s report looks at two key ways that we may be getting it wrong: by underestimating households’ asset support and the labor market’s durability. We remain tactically neutral but continue to look for opportunities to turn defensive.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
ISM Manufacturing PMI Relapses Yet Price Pressures Linger
The US ISM manufacturing PMI release for February disappointed consensus expectations. The headline index relapsed to 47.8 after climbing to a 15-month high of 49.1 in January, falling below expectations of a continued slowdown in the pace of contraction to…
Daily Insights
The ECB Needs Further Evidence That Inflation Is Heading To 2%
The preliminary Eurozone inflation release suggests that price pressures eased by less than anticipated in February. Headline CPI inflation slowed from 2.8% y/y to 2.6% y/y (slightly above expectations of 2.5% y/y. Similarly, although the core inflation gauge…
Daily Insights
Tech-Heavy Bourses Are Outperforming YTD
As we highlighted in a previous Insight, the breadth of the US equity rally has been relatively narrow, led by extremely strong gains among Big Tech stocks. Tech is still the best performing sector, with the S&P IT price index up 12% year-to-date on top…
Daily Insights
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Comparison Shopping Between European Corporates & Italian Government Bonds

In this Strategy Insight, we take a comparative look at two of the largest spread product sectors in Europe – Italian government bonds and investment grade corporates. We make the case for favoring Italy over investment grade in the event of a downturn in European economic sentiment.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Robis
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Recession Thesis Remains Intact

Amid patchy global growth, the US economy remains resilient. However, tight monetary policy will eventually trigger a recession in the US too. The stock market rally has been very narrow. Stay underweight risk assets.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
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An Update On The Norwegian Krone

In this insight, we provide an update on the Norwegian krone, with attractive trade ideas over a long-term horizon. Shorter-term, our neutral-to-positive view on the dollar keeps us on the sidelines for USD/NOK.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Positioning Is Still A Short-Term Risk For Bonds
In a recent report, our US Bond strategists argued that while the year-to-date increase in yields has made Treasures more attractive, conditions are not yet in place to extend duration. Instead, they expect that there will be a better opportunity later this…
Daily Insights

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