Developed Countries
Japan’s CPI inflation dropped from 2.6% to 2.2% y/y in January. However, the sharp slowdown comes on the back of falling energy prices. Meanwhile, the BoJ’s core-core measure of underlying inflation (CPI excluding fresh food and energy) eased from 3.7% y/y to…
On the surface, the US durable goods report delivered a negative surprise on Tuesday. The 6.1% m/m drop in new orders in January fell below expectations and the December figure was revised down to 0.3% m/m from 0.0% m/m. However, the details of the…
Monday’s release of the Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index corroborates the signal from other regional Fed surveys that manufacturing conditions are picking up in the US. The headline Current General Business Activity index jumped from -27.4 to -11.3 in…
The FTSE 250 has been outperforming the FTSE 100 since late October 2023, with the former gaining 13.7% versus 3.9% in the case of the latter over this period. To the extent that UK small cap stocks are more exposed to domestic economic dynamics than…
At the headline level, US equity indices are on a tear with the S&P 500 forging a fresh all-time high last week and the NASDAQ on the verge of overtaking its November 2021 record close. However, the rally remains quite narrow, led by only a few stocks. As…
The 2023Q4 earnings season is drawing to a close with over 80% of S&P500 companies having reported results. However, the three main providers of aggregate earnings data are posting significant variations. Indeed, IBES Refinitiv reports a robust 9% y/y…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Germany will likely drag the overall Euro Area into contraction, even if, individually, other countries manage to avoid a recession. This slightly better economic outcome will nonetheless…
Though there are some positive signals recently for the Democrats, it is still hard for them to close the gap and turn things around. The Republicans are still favored to win the Senate as well as the House in the upcoming election.
The first in a series of Strategy Insights where we present a checklist for extending duration in each major government bond market. This first entry focuses on the US.
Outside of Germany, European growth fares better than many believe. Will this hidden resilience help the euro and push German yields higher?