Developed Countries
Germany’s IFO Business Climate index ticked up 0.3 points to 85.5 in February, in line with consensus estimates. Expectations for the next 6 months explain the improvement in sentiment among German companies (up 0.6 points to 84.1), while their assessment of…
The messaging from the minutes of the ECB’s January meeting was similar to the Fed. Although Governing Council members noted that “for the first time in many meetings, the risks to reaching the inflation target were seen as broadly balanced or at least…
In a recent Special Report, BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategists update their long-term fair-value models for the real effective exchange rate. The model aims to capture deviations from the long-term drivers of a currency, such as relative productivity trends…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, investors should take care not to read too much into the recent easing in financial conditions. According to Goldman Sachs’ Financial Conditions Index (FCI) financial conditions have become…
In this week’s report, we release an update to our long-term REER valuation model and expected future returns for major currencies.
Clients have been pushing back on our recession call on the grounds that it is incompatible with the economy’s second-half acceleration and the more recent easing in financial conditions. We examine both of those points in the course of doing some pushing back of our own.
Preliminary PMI estimates suggest that service sector activity is expanding across DM economies in February. Most notably, services PMIs are back at or above 50 in Australia and the Eurozone from previously contracting levels. Meanwhile, the services sectors…
Nvidia’s blowout Q4 2023 earnings results and bullish guidance catalyzed a rally in global stocks that pushed the S&P 500, Europe’s Stoxx 600, and Japanese Nikkei to record highs on Thursday. The S&P 500 is already expensive. It is true that Big…
Japanese exports in JPY increased by 11.9% y/y in January, up from a 9.7% y/y increase in December and surpassing expectations of 9.5% y/y. A 29.2% y/y jump in exports to China led the overall surge. Trade data from Asian export-oriented economies are…
Canada’s January CPI release shows price pressures cooling last month. Headline CPI eased to 2.9%y/y from 3.4%y/y in December, below expectations of 3.3%y/y. Furthermore, month-over-month inflation fell for the first time since May 2020. Headline CPI has…