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Developed Countries

Can Cyclicals' Outperformance Persist?
Since the low of 27 October last year, MSCI US has rallied by 19.1% and this rally has been firmly driven by cyclical sectors. Performance-wise Information Technology (IT), Communication Services and Financials and Real Estate have been the top performing…
Daily Insights
Dallas Fed Survey Corroborates Pessimistic Signal From Other Regional Fed Banks
Results of regional Fed surveys suggest that the US manufacturing sector is starting the year on a weak footing. Monday’s report from the Dallas Fed– the last to release its results for January – showed the headline manufacturing activity index collapse from…
Daily Insights
Will The Magnificent Seven Continue To Power The US Equity Rally?
This week is set to be a busy one for the US market. On the policy front, there is the Wednesday FOMC meeting which will give insight into the Fed’s latest thinking regarding the timing of rate cuts. On the data front, there is the Friday Jobs report which…
Daily Insights
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A Nascent Mini Cycle

Is the rebound in European PMIs enough to boost the appeal of European risk assets?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary, Jeremie Peloso
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Happily Ever After?

A recent slew of macroeconomic data has reassured us that the runway to a recession is longer than many thought. However, that positive realization comes with two caveats. First, the Fed pivot is not imminent, and the magnitude of rate cuts may disappoint. Second, the recession has been delayed but not avoided. Further, geopolitical risk is elevated. We will overweight Tech on the next dip and upgrade Retail to an overweight.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
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GFIS Model Bond Portfolio 2023 Review & 2024 Outlook: Once More, With Feeling

We present the performance review of the Global Fixed Income Strategy Model Bond Portfolio for 2023. We also discuss the outlook for 2024 performance based on our Key Views for the year. The portfolio is positioned to benefit from a year where the global backdrop will be one of weak growth and further declines in inflation, leading central bank to begin cutting interest rates.

Global Fixed Income Strategy
A Goldilocks US Economy?
Friday’s US Personal Income and Outlays report for December delivered a positive update on the US economy. On the growth side, the data confirm the signal from the Q4 GDP release that consumer spending continues to power the US economy. The robust 0.5%…
Daily Insights
Is German Consumer Sentiment Relapsing?
Over the past few months, falling inflation has provided a boost to real wages in the Euro Area which returned to growth in 2023Q3 after 9 consecutive quarters of decline. This dynamic in turn improved the purchasing power of households, boosting their morale…
Daily Insights
Rising Economic Surprise Index Underscores Risk Of An Early Fed Pivot
With the latest PCE release confirming that the disinflation process is intact (see The Numbers), a key question facing investors is around the timing of the Fed’s pivot to rate cuts. Indeed, the US inflation surprise index has collapsed from its mid-2021…
Daily Insights
Balance Of Payments Matter For The USD
While balance of payments (BoP) do not really matter for day-to-day FX considerations, they do matter over the long term. According to BCA’s Foreign Exchange Strategists, at high levels of US dollar valuation like today, the current account balance tends to…
Daily Insights

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