Developed Countries
This report examines if investors should worry about a balance of payments crisis in the next 3-to-6 months.
Recent data suggest that the US housing market is resilient. In particular, a strong rebound in homebuilder sentiment is sending a positive signal. The NAHB Housing Market Index jumped from 37 to 44 in January – handily beating expectations of 39 on the back…
The Fed’s latest Beige Book delivered a lukewarm message on the US economy. Growth, employment, and prices were all relatively stable since the previous release in late-November. Eight districts reported little or no change in activity, three districts…
The 1mm b/d surge in US crude oil production last year was the result of a flood of low-cost drilled-but-uncompleted (DUCs) shale-oil wells coming online, mostly in 2H23 in the Permian Basin, which our colleagues in BCA's Commodity & Energy Strategy…
The US retail sales release delivered a positive signal about the US economy in December. The 0.6% m/m increase in overall retail sales beat expectations of a more muted acceleration from 0.3% m/m to 0.4% m/m. Importantly, the improvement was broad-based with…
The British pound was the best performing G10 currency on Wednesday as UK gilts sold off meaningfully with the 10-year yield ending the day nearly 19 basis points higher. An unexpected acceleration in CPI inflation in December prompted the move. Notably,…
The performance of the Industrials sector tends to lag the business cycle, as companies invest in capex on the heels of economic expansion. But demand is not entirely cyclical, as the need to replace obsolete or aging equipment or machines is relatively…
The SEC has just approved bitcoin spot ETFs, but does bitcoin have any ‘intrinsic’ value? In this Special Report we explain why the answer is yes, how bitcoin compares with gold, and why the bitcoin price could ultimately head well north of $100,000.
Results of the ZEW survey sent a slightly positive signal on German investor sentiment. The economic expectations indicator rose to an 11-month high in January – beating consensus estimates of a decline. This increased optimism about the outlook reflects an…
The CHF/JPY has enjoyed a strong upward trend, appreciating by 52.6% since January 2019. Currently, it is 84.6% overvalued relative to PPP, which questions whether a turnaround is imminent. Japan faces more significant inflationary pressures than…