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Developed Countries

Biden: From Dove, To Duck, To Hawk?
President Joe Biden’s average approval rating fell to 39.9% on December 3, while his disapproval rating rose to 55.4%. This polling is extremely dangerous for the president. He lags former President Donald Trump by 2% in average head-to-head polling for the…
Daily Insights
The Eurozone's Three Credit Phases In 2024
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, European corporate spreads will widen over the coming six months before an attractive buying opportunity emerges in the second half of 2024. 2024 will likely be characterized by three credit…
Daily Insights
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Complacency In Credit Markets

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for December 2023.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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2024 Key Views: Suspended Animation

We enter 2024 as we were across the last four months of 2023, tactically equal weight across the board until the S&P 500 rally is complete and we gain a better entry point for underweighting equities and overweighting fixed income.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
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Credit Implications Of A Eurozone Recession

The recent uptick in European economic data will not last beyond the next six months. How will European corporate credit perform in this context?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary, Jeremie Peloso
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Sketching Out A Near-Term Trading Range For Bond Yields

Treasury yields will sketch out a range between now and Q1 2024, with the upside determined by inflation and the downside determined by labor markets.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
US ISM Disappoints In November
The US ISM PMI sent a slightly negative signal about US manufacturing conditions in November. The headline index came in unchanged at 46.7, which suggests that the pace of contraction was more pronounced than consensus estimates expecting the PMI to increase…
Daily Insights
The Recession That Never Came?
According to BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service, recession is still on track to begin in the first half of 2024. Is it the recession that never came? Certainly, the consensus thinks so. Soft landing is now the clear mainstream view. Investment…
Daily Insights
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New Zealand: High Rates For A Lot Longer

In this Insight, we discuss the outlook for monetary policy in New Zealand after this week’s RBNZ policy meeting, and introduce related fixed income and currency trade ideas.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
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Monthly Portfolio Update: Tight Policy Will Eventually Trigger Recession

Inflation won’t fall fast enough for the Fed to cut rates preemptively before recession arrives. The risk/rewards balance is unfavorable for risk assets. Stay overweight bonds versus equities.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans

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