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Developed Countries

The BoE: Restrictive For Longer
As expected, the Bank of England kept its bank rate unchanged at 5.25% at Thursday's MPC meeting with six members voting in favor of the decision and the remaining three preferring a 25bps rate increase. Governor Andrew Bailey stressed at the post-meeting…
Daily Insights
Time To Allocate More To Crisis Risk Offset Hedge Funds
Our Private Market & Alternatives strategists recently upgraded their recommendation on Crisis Risk Offset (CRO) strategies within Hedge Funds from neutral to overweight. They are not making a tactical call around tail risk or black swan events. But they…
Daily Insights
The Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, while economic growth will be a much more important driver of Treasury yields going forward than supply, the Treasury department did make several announcements on Wednesday that will mitigate any negative…
Daily Insights
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Conversations With Ms. Mea: Beware Of Widening Cracks

In financial systems, cracks typically begin on the periphery and then expand to the center. Hence, the ruptures on the fringes often act as an early warning. These fissures tend to widen and spread to the core, causing a breakdown in the S&P 500. Investors should consider buying US Treasurys aggressively when the S&P 500 slips below 4,000.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
US Manufacturing ISM Delivers A Somber Message
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI delivered a disappointing update on factory activity in October. The headline index unexpectedly fell to 46.7, surprising consensus estimates it would remain unchanged at 49.0. In particular, a sharp 4.4-point decline in the…
Daily Insights
The Fed Is Proceeding Carefully
As expected, the Fed stood pat at its Wednesday meeting, maintaining the target for the fed funds rate at 5.25-5.50%. The minimal changes made to the Fed Statement were to emphasize the strong pace of economic activity in Q3, to characterize job gains as…
Daily Insights
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Did Policymakers Just Solidify The Cyclical Peak In Yields?

Our reaction to today’s FOMC meeting and the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Worrying Uptrends In Inflation Expectations Are Being Masked

The fundamental component of long-term inflation expectations has climbed to its highest level since 2008 in both the US and the euro area. This means that both the Fed and the ECB will need to engineer inflation to undershoot 2 percent for an extended period if they are to maintain their 2 percent inflation targets. We explain what this means for investment strategy over the coming 6-12 months. Plus, we pinpoint what to focus on in this Friday’s US jobs report. And we identify food and beverages (PBJ) and the Indonesian rupiah (IDR/USD) as excellent rebound candidates.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Yen Weakens Following BoJ's YCC Tweak
The Bank of Japan adjusted the language of its Monetary Policy Statement on Tuesday to indicate that it will allow greater flexibility it its yield curve control policy (YCC). It indicated that although the target level of 10-year JGB yields remains unchanged…
Daily Insights
US ECI Growth Unexpectedly Accelerates
The US Employment Cost Index (ECI) unexpectedly accelerated in Q3, rising by 1.1% q/q versus anticipations the pace of increase would remain unchanged at 1.0% q/q. A pickup in wages and salaries drove the increase. On an annual basis, the ECI slowed from 4.5%…
Daily Insights

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