Developed Countries
US financial conditions have tightened meaningfully in Q3. While the Goldman Sachs index remains below where it was a year ago, it crossed above the 100 line in late September into restrictive levels after spending most of the year in accommodative territory.…
The Japanese yen has depreciated by 12.6% against the USD year-to-date. This exceeds the 1.6% depreciation and 0.8% appreciation by the euro and British pound against the US dollar respectively. With the higher-for-longer narrative now becoming the mainstream…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the euro's correction is now advanced. During the first week of the month, EUR/USD briefly dipped below 1.045. Previously, the team argued it would buy EUR/USD below 1.04. A dip to this…
More equity volatility is coming in the short run. Trump’s nomination looks to be smooth, which marginally reduces the incumbent party advantage and increases policy uncertainty.
Investors underestimate the likelihood of the war in Israel spilling outside of Gaza, and engulfing wider swaths of the Middle East, endangering energy supplies. Stay overweight Energy and Aerospace & Defense.
Yields remain the force dominating the evolution of markets. A peak in yields would help European assets rebound, but the war in the Middle East could push higher energy prices, with negative consequences for Europe.
The preliminary release of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey delivered a negative surprise on Friday. A bigger-than-anticipated drop pushed the headline sentiment index down to a five-month low of 63. Weaker-than-expected assessments of…
Back in May, our foreign exchange team suggested the risk to sterling was to the downside. Indeed, GBP/USD is down 8% from its recent peak. While dollar strength largely explains this move in GBP/USD, there have been other fundamental factors at play. The…
This week's Insight gauges the potential of a dollar breakout or breakdown and suggests a few trade ideas.
The US CPI report shows inflation was higher than anticipated in September. Although the headline index decelerated from 0.6% m/m to 0.4% m/m, it is above expectations of 0.3% m/m. The annual rate of change remains at 3.7% y/y – also above consensus estimates…