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Developed Countries

US Homebuilder Sentiment Sours In September
After a steady rebound in the first half of the year, the US NAHB Housing Market Index’s 5-point decline to 45 in September was a disappointment to consensus estimates of a 1-point decrease. It marks the second consecutive deterioration and brought down the…
Daily Insights
Inflation Is Still A Concern
Google searches for “inflation” by US users have been on a general downward trend over the past year. This is in line with developments in realized inflation as annual core CPI inflation peaked last September. Similarly, market- and survey-based measures of…
Daily Insights
Some Upcoming Upside For Small Caps?
Monetary policy is difficult to calibrate: it is hard to get it just right. The Global Investment Strategy (GIS) service has been iterating that while the Fed could temporarily achieve a soft landing, there is much uncertainty surrounding the idea that the…
Daily Insights
Europe: Inflation Will Come Back
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service European inflation is likely to remain stubborn through the remainder of the decade, since the working-age population’s decline will keep the labor market tight. European rates have…
Daily Insights
Done, For Now

The ECB is done lifting interest rate for the cycle and its next move will be a cut next year. Yet, European rates will climb even higher in the second half of the decade.

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
US CPI Inflation Accelerates In August
The US CPI release showed monthly inflation accelerated in August. While the increase in headline inflation from 0.2% m/m to 0.6% m/m was in line with consensus estimates, the core index’s 0.3% m/m rise came in slightly above expectations it would remain…
Daily Insights
US Prime Age Workers Have Returned To Work
A sharp drop in the US labor force participation rate was among the pandemic disruptions that contributed to tight labor market conditions. The total participation rate collapsed from 63.3% in February 2020 to 60.1% in April 2020. The decline over those two…
Daily Insights
China Matters For The Eurozone Industrial Sector
The Euro Area’s industrial production figures for July sent a disappointing signal on Wednesday. The 1.1% m/m decline in output fell below expectations of a smaller 0.9% m/m decrease. On a year-over-year basis, IP contracted for the third consecutive month,…
Daily Insights
Nothing In CPI To Prevent A Fed Pause

The implications of this morning’s CPI report for Fed policy, Treasuries and TIPS.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Will I Work For AI, Or Will AI Work For Me?

This Special Report is a timely reprise of a speech that I gave at the London School of Economics on our understanding and misunderstanding of generative AI. In neurological terms, generative AI has a ‘super-neocortex’ which means that it can thrash humans in abstract thinking, or IQ. But crucially, generative AI does not have a ‘limbic system’ which means that it will lag well behind humans in emotional intelligence, or EQ. I hope you find the speech insightful and provocative, especially on how we might have completely misunderstood human intelligence and super-intelligence, and the economic and societal implications for the coming decade.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi

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AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics