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Developed Countries

Stocks perform worse in presidential election years than average years, especially in the first half of the year, and especially if the ruling party ends up falling from power. Investors should take risk off the table until the unemployment rate peaks.

Magnificent Seven leadership is neither a new nor an unnatural phenomenon. There is no shortage of reasons why equities might have already made a top, but investors should not be tricked into thinking that the rally was somehow specious.

The euro has weakened sharply since mid-July as US growth continues to outperform that of the Eurozone. Is a new bear market afoot for the common currency?

Japanese economic data delivered a negative surprise on Friday. Q2 GDP growth was revised down from 1.5% q/q to 1.2% q/q, below expectations of 1.4% q/q. The downwards revision reflects a 1% q/q decline in business spending (down from the preliminary…
Overall, the Fed’s latest Beige Book provided a pessimistic assessment of the US economy. Although the report characterized tourism spending as “stronger than expected,” it also noted that pent-up demand for leisure travel has now likely been satisfied and…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the counter-trend bounce in the dollar will continue. Factually, the trend in the dollar has depended on both global growth dynamics and the relative health of the US economy. From higher…

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for September 2023.

In this week’s report, we assess the key reasons why the dollar has risen, and if that is set to continue.

Strategists arguing for an end of the outperformance of US equities over international stocks have pointed to the lofty valuations of American stocks vis-à-vis their global counterparts. Moreover, they have highlighted that US tech companies, which have led…
Since the beginning of the year, our equally-weighted global cyclicals index has outperformed equally-weighted defensives by about 13%. As the chart above shows, this relative performance trend has been extremely positively correlated with US 10-year…