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Developed Countries

This week, our three screeners cover: Favoring European equities over US equities, cybersecurity stocks, and large caps with large moves in their BCA Score. 

The April ISM Manufacturing adds to recession risks: Collapsing export orders and weak domestic momentum reinforce our defensive positioning. The index slipped to 48.7 from 49.0, with new orders still contracting and new export orders plunging to 43.1, a…
Our Counterpoint strategists overweigh Europe versus the US across both equities and bonds, and are structurally long bitcoin. Trump’s tariffs are deflationary for the world and inflationary for the US, prompting a sharp shift in global asset…
The Bank of Japan’s dovish hold does not contradict BCA’s underweight JGBs and long JPY recommendations. The BoJ left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% for a second meeting, but slashed its GDP and inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026. Nevertheless, the…

This year’s corporate bond sell off has hit high-yield more than investment grade, and high-yield spreads have turned relatively more attractive as a result.

MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.

MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.

Q1 Export Spike Masks Eurozone Slowdown Ahead …
The Q1 US GDP contraction and inflation dynamics reinforce our defensive asset allocation. GDP missed estimates and contracted -0.3% annualized, led by a sharp slowdown in net exports. Consumption slid to 1.8% from 4.0%, reflecting falling consumer…

The US and Canada will resolve their trade dispute quickly, leading to a North American deal and better prospects for future relations, as well as for other US trade deals around the world. But even as tariff threats decline, the US economy will slow, weighing on its neighbors. Canada will fare better than Mexico.