Developed Countries
Last week’s labor market data signal that US employment conditions remain strong – solidifying the case for a 25 bps rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting later this month (see The Numbers). Yet in order for the Fed to continue tightening beyond July,…
BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service uses three simple rules when trading the dollar over a medium-term horizon (12-18 months). What could the macro outlook look like? What is happening to valuations? And where does market sentiment lie? The…
Positive economic surprises have delayed the onset of recession in the United States. But tighter monetary and fiscal policy, slowing global growth, and a looming rebound in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk suggest that investors should buy insurance while it is cheap.
A perspective on the recent increase in US bond yields and this morning’s employment report.
In this short weekly report, we review some of the most common questions clients asked us in the last few weeks.
Global stocks fell and sovereign bond yields surged on Thursday following the release of stronger-than-anticipated US labor market data. Data released by Challenger, Gray, & Christmas showed job cuts declined to 40,709 last month from 80,089 in May.…
Yesterday we highlighted that falling producer prices foreshadow lower CPI inflation in the Eurozone and argued that this dynamic is positive for the bloc’s consumption outlook. Easing price pressures will ultimately lift real wages, reducing the drag on…
According to our Counterpoint strategy service, latest nowcasts indicate that world growth has likely slowed to sub-2 percent, thereby passing the threshold of a typical world recession as experienced in the early 1970s, early 1980s, early 1990s and early…
Eurozone producer prices fell by more than anticipated in May. The -1.5% y/y decrease – which marked the first annual drop since December 2020 – was more pronounced than expectations of a -1.3% y/y decline and followed a downwardly revised 0.9% y/y increase…
Seven of the 11 S&P 500 equity sectors are in the green on a year-to-date basis, led by those that benefitted from the AI frenzy: Information Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary. In fact, the Industrials sector has recouped all…