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Developed Countries

Eurozone Inflation: The Worst Is Over
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service Eurozone inflation likely to diminish further. First, policy is tight. The impact on leading economic variables is already visible, with M1 collapsing, credit demand plunging, credit…
Daily Insights
The ECB And BoJ Diverge: Implications For Markets

In this Insight, we discuss the currency and bond market implications of last week’s ECB and Bank of Japan policy meetings. The conclusion: the ECB is on a path to an overly hawkish policy mistake, while the Bank of Japan’s dovish stance is growing more unsustainable.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Head Fake Or Real Deal Webcast: Poll Results And Client Questions

Investors are still cautious and have significant cash that needs to be put to work. Trickle-down of it into the US equity market may extend the rally. Overly bearish futures positioning is also a strong contrarian indicator. Disinflation is good for real earnings growth, and imminent earnings rebound may add support for equities.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
So Far, So Good On The Road To 4,500

As the S&P 500 nears our 4,500 target, we review the rationale behind the call to assess its merit.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
BoJ: From Policy Divergence To Policy Convergence?
The Japanese yen was the worst performing major currency on Friday. The weakness followed news that the BoJ kept its policy rate untouched at -0.1% – as widely expected – and did not make any changes to its yield curve control program. While the BoJ statement…
Daily Insights
US Consumer Sentiment: A Durable Rebound?
Preliminary results of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey sent a positive signal about household morale in June. The Sentiment index rose by a greater-than-anticipated 4.7 points to 63.9 on the back of improvements in both the Current…
Daily Insights
Europe’s Second Half Outlook

The Eurozone just experienced two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction. For the remainder of the year, can growth pick up or will the ECB decimate activity?

European Investment Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Hawkish ECB: How Much Longer?
As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a 25bps rate hike on Thursday, raising the policy rate to 3.5% — the highest since August 2001. Moreover, the central bank maintained a hawkish bias, signaling that further rate hikes are likely in…
Daily Insights
Inflation And Jobs: A Non-Linear Collision Course
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, making inflation imperceptible will require making unemployment perceptible, meaning a recession. Our non-linear world often surprises our linear-thinking minds. For linear thinkers, inflation falling from…
Daily Insights
Will The Fed Hike By Another 50 bps?

This Strategy Insight discusses the bond market and currency implications of the Fed’s “hawkish pause”.

US Bond Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Ryan Swift

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