Developed Countries
UK headline inflation fell by less than expected in April. The decline from 10.1% y/y to 8.7% y/y came above consensus estimates calling for a more pronounced drop to 8.2% y/y. And although the annual figure now stands at its lowest since March 2022, the…
The New Zealand dollar was the worst performing G10 currency on Wednesday, plunging by 2.3% versus the US dollar. The sharp drop in the kiwi came after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) signaled that it was done tightening monetary policy following a 25…
Earnings Surprises And S&P 500 Sectors
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Despite a few Federal Reserve policymakers having recently advocated for a higher funds rate, a broad survey of all recent Fed commentary and the minutes from the May FOMC meeting suggests that the Fed is more likely to keep rates on hold when it meets next…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service recommends investors overweight Chinese onshore stocks within a global equity portfolio. Authorities are determined to boost the onshore equity market, in general, and share prices of state-owned…
The debt ceiling game’s endpoint will avoid default only if it implies economic pain. For the Republicans, the best strategy is not to lift the debt ceiling unless the Democrats cut spending a lot, or unless the economy starts to tank. Plus: there are signs that the mania in ‘AI’ stocks has gone too far too fast.
Preliminary PMI releases for May continue to show a divergence in activity across DM economies. On the one hand, the pace of expansion of service sector activity accelerated. The US Services PMI rose from 53.6 to 55.1 – beating expectations of a decline to…
Recent Asian trade data do not provide any optimism that the global manufacturing slump is nearing its end. South Korean exports collapsed by 16.1% y/y in the first 20 days of May. While the decline was broad-based, sales to China were particularly weak,…
Measures of US equity breadth have been deteriorating over the past few months following an improvement in the fourth quarter of 2022. The share of US stocks trading above their 200-day moving average have been trending lower since it peaked in early…
In recent insights we have noted a recent deterioration in European sentiment indicators such as the ZEW and Sentix. Similarly, measures of manufacturing activity are deteriorating. The flash estimate of the HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell deeper in…