Developed Countries
The US banking system remains unsettled over two months after the failures of Silicon Valley Bank. The two weeks following regulators’ seizure of First Republic (FRC) have featured dizzying swings in the stock prices of several regional banks as investors…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, a large set of variables points to some additional correction in European stocks over the coming months. The collapse in the Euro Area M1 is consistent with a significant decline in Eurozone…
The conventional economic thinking about the likely impact of AI is misguided because it extrapolates linearly from what AI can do today to what it can do tomorrow. Just as the investment community and the broader public were blindsided by the exponential rise in Covid cases during the early days of the pandemic, they will be blindsided by how quickly AI transforms society and the economy.
A restrictive policy by the ECB and a weak manufacturing sector will create headwinds for European stocks this summer. How should investors position their portfolios in this context?
Preliminary results from the University of Michigan survey show consumer sentiment relapsed in May. The headline index plunged from 63.5 to a six-month low of 57.7 – below expectations of a marginal decrease to 63.0. Declines in both the current conditions as…
In Thursday’s BoE meeting, policymakers highlighted that stronger-than-anticipated food price gains contributed to recent upside surprises in the UK’s inflation rate. Rapidly climbing food inflation hit a 19.6% y/y in March. The UK is not alone. Similar…
After a powerful 40% rally from the March 2020 lows, AUD/JPY peaked in September 2022 and has been consolidating those gains in bearish trading pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Although the cross is up 4.5% from the March bottom this year, the rally has…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, AI’s progression is following an exponential curve, not a linear one, meaning that advances could come much faster than expected. If humanity survives the transition to superintelligent AI,…
As expected, the Bank of England raised its bank rate by 25bps to 4.5% on Thursday, marking the 12th consecutive rise. Notably the updated projections show a significant improvement in the economic outlook. The upwards growth revisions reflect falling energy…
Our colleagues in BCA’s Commodity & Energy Service believe the US banking crisis is part and parcel of the fallout from the Fed’s shift to aggressive policy tightening undertaken last year when it realized inflation was not transitory. The…