Developed Countries
Results of the US NFIB survey show small business sentiment dipped to a decade low in April. To the extent that small businesses are more exposed to domestic economic dynamics, the survey provides a good update on economic conditions in the US. On this…
Small is out of investors’ favor yet again and is down 13% off its February 3rd peak. The S&P 600 is now unusually cheap and trades 13x forward earnings, a 25% discount to the S&P 500. According to the BCA Technical indicator, Small is also oversold. …
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, the immediate emergence of a second wave of banking system stresses poses a new threat to their constructive near-term economic and market views and will have to be monitored carefully. The team…
The US Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) shows that US commercial banks continue to tighten lending standards across nearly all business and household loan categories. Moreover, demand is weakening for commercial & industrial…
At 3.8%, the yield on 10-year UK Gilts is now back near where it was in early March. This marks a round-trip after the yield fell to as low as 3.3% in the weeks following the emergence of bank stress in the US and Europe. Meanwhile, both US and German 10-year…
The rebound in European economic conditions that began at the end of 2022 has ended. On Monday, the Eurozone Sentix sent a pessimistic signal about investor confidence. The headline index fell from -8.7 to -13.7 in May – disappointing expectations of a…
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of a “constitutional crisis” if Congress failed to raise the national debt limit and the United States defaulted on bond payments. Yellen spoke out to urge Congress to come to an agreement just ahead of May 9 meetings…
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the ECB is wading into policy-mistake territory because it is overemphasizing lagging indicators such as wages at the expense of leading indicators such as credit and money flows. European…
The ECB continues to focus on lagging indicators and risks once again to cause a policy error that unduly hurts European growth. What does it mean for investors?
The Fed’s Index of Common Inflation Expectations confirms that there is reduced pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy further. The quarterly release shows the index declined for the third consecutive time in Q1. The index is a…