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Developed Countries

Fed Pauses: Lessons From The Past
Investors are betting that the Fed has delivered its last rate hike of the cycle and will swiftly pivot to easing policy. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, Fed funds futures are pricing in a 38% chance of a 25bps rate cut at the July meeting. By…
Daily Insights
The Signal From Receding Inflation Expectations
The Fed’s Index of Common Inflation Expectations confirms that there is reduced pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy further. The quarterly release shows the index declined for the third consecutive time in Q1. The index is a…
Daily Insights
US Recession: Sooner = Deeper
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service’s base case remains a 2024 recession but the risks around that view have increased in light of recent banking stresses. A recession that begins abruptly this year could end up being deeper than one that…
Daily Insights
A Turn For The Worse (For Now)

Although our take has not changed yet, the immediate emergence of a second wave of banking system stresses poses a new threat to our constructive near-term economic and market views and will have to be monitored carefully.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
The ECB Is On A Journey
As anticipated, the ECB downshifted the pace of rate hikes on Thursday, delivering a 25bps increase. Moreover, the central bank announced that it “expects” to end APP reinvestments in July. President Christine Lagarde continued to characterize inflation as…
Daily Insights
What Will It Take For The NOK To Strengthen?
The Norwegian central bank’s 25bps policy rate hike on Thursday was in line with consensus expectations. The lack of a decisive peak in headline CPI inflation – which has been gyrating in the 5.9-7.5% range since mid-2022 – is keeping policymakers…
Daily Insights
Pulling Inflation Lower Means Pulling Profits Sharply Lower
The biggest driver of structural inflation is wage inflation. This is because wages are the main cost in the services that comprise about two-thirds of any developed economy. To be more precise, the biggest component of structural inflation is wage inflation…
Daily Insights
CBAM: EU Emissions Evangelism

The initial phase of the EU’s ambitious CBAM will launch 1 October and will begin collecting a carbon tax in 2026. Between now and then, it will be challenged as it attempts to put a price tag on CO2 emissions as imports cross the EU border. The CBAM will impart an inflationary bias in EU commodity and goods markets as 2026 draws near and importers have to secure EU ETS credits, the number of which, by design, will contract over time.

Commodity & Energy Strategy
May FOMC Meeting Recap

The Fed hiked 25 basis points at yesterday’s FOMC meeting while also signaling that the tightening cycle is now on hold. We discuss the short-run and long-run implications for Treasury yields.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Global Small Caps: Value Versus The Cycle
Global small cap stocks have underperformed large caps by roughly 7% since the beginning of March, in response to concerns about the global banking system. Smaller firms are generally less able to access funding through capital markets, and thus are more…
Daily Insights

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