Developed Countries
As expected, the Fed delivered a 25bps rate hike on Wednesday. However, the FOMC statement and Chair Jay Powell’s post-meeting remarks signaled that this increase may mark the end of the tightening cycle. Notably, the sentence indicating that “the…
Global small cap stocks have underperformed large caps by roughly 7% since the beginning of March, in response to concerns about the global banking system. Smaller firms are generally less able to access funding through capital markets, and thus are more…
The S&P 500 is broadly unchanged from where it was at the end of Q1. It ended the day on Wednesday 0.5% below its level on the last day of March. However, the calm surface conceals some subterranean activity. Specifically, a selloff across cyclical…
As the Fed meets today, we explain what it did wrong in 1970, 1974, and 1980 that prevented inflation from being exorcised, and the lessons for 2023-24. Plus, we identify a currency cross that could rebound in the next year.
The JOLTS survey for March showed a continued softening of the US labor market. Job openings fell from 9.97 million to 9.59 million – below expectations of a more muted decline to 9.74 million. While job openings remain historically elevated, the March update…
The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised markets with a 25bp rate hike at its Tuesday meeting, bringing the cash rate up to 3.85%. This decision follows a pause in April, which provided policymakers some time to assess the full effect of the 350 bps of…
Results of the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey revealed a substantial tightening in credit standards for loans to firms and loans to households for house purchase in Q1. Higher perceptions of risk and lower risk tolerance are behind the tighter conditions and banks…
First Republic (FRC) became the third large-cap bank to fold when regulators seized it over the weekend. Investors took the news in stride on Monday, but several large- and mid-cap regional banks sold off sharply on Tuesday. Our US Investment Strategy…
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy and US Political Strategy services, the macro backdrop is favorable for Pharma. as it tends to outperform the market during the slowdown and contraction stages of the business cycle. Q1-2023 GDP came in weaker…
Macro and geopolitical risks may spoil the narrow window for a stock market rally before recessionary trends rise to the fore.