Developed Countries
The April update of the ISM PMI continues to indicate that the US manufacturing sector is weak. Although the headline index increased 0.8 points to 47.1, it remains below 50 in contraction territory and near March’s 22-month low of 46.3. Two of the three…
BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service remains bullish on the yen’s longer-term outlook. The yen is at capitulation levels. Long positions versus the dollar can be established at USD/JPY 138. The team’s longer-term bullish yen view is anchored…
Pent-up demand for services is keeping the global economy going, but we still expect recession over the next 12 months. Investors should keep a cautious portfolio stance.
This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for May 2023.
EUR/USD is trying to breach above 1.10. What is the balance of positive versus negative factors that would allow the euro to breakout?
The US Employment Cost Index (ECI) accelerated from 1.1% q/q to 1.2% q/q in Q1 2023, rising above expectations of 1.1%. Compensation within goods-producing industries accelerated from 0.9% to 1.2%, while wages at service-providing industries grew at a slower…
The Eurozone economy’s marginal 0.1% q/q GDP growth in Q1 2023 confirms that economic conditions improved slightly at the start of the year. Although the GDP figure missed consensus expectations of a 0.2% q/q rise, it came in line with the latest ECB staff…
According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, the risk of household sector indebtedness has rotated from countries like the US and Spain to several other countries/regions, including Hong Kong SAR, Australia, Canada, and Sweden. These are…
Yen bulls need patience. The near-term narrative remains bearish on the back of interest-rate differentials. Longer term, it is the most attractive currency the G10, on valuation grounds.
Yen bulls need patience. The near-term narrative remains bearish on the back of interest-rate differentials. Longer term, it is the most attractive currency the G10, on valuation grounds.