Developed Countries
April PMIs confirm global growth is stalling, reinforcing our overweight in government bonds and underweight in risk assets. Services witnessed the worst deterioration, but manufacturing is still contracting even if broadly stable. This mirrors recent US…
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Weak European consumer confidence adds to recent sentiment misses and reinforces our tactical long December 2025 ESTR futures versus SOFR position. April flash Consumer Confidence fell to -16.7 from -14.5 in March, missing expectations and aligning with…
Our EM strategists recommend upgrading CE3 assets within EM portfolios, as a structural shift in the global currency regime is underway. They expect the greenback to depreciate against the euro amid a global downturn, supporting Central European currencies,…
Advanced US indicators for April continue to deteriorate, reinforcing our defensive positioning as recession risks remain underpriced. After weak Empire and Philly Fed manufacturing prints, the Philly Fed services survey shows the slowdown is spreading beyond…
President Trump's pressure on Fed Chairman Powell is intensifying, but keeping Powell in place offers the administration political cover while keeping bond yields contained. Removing Powell would be legally difficult and risk unsettling markets, while his…
The latest UK data supports a May BoE cut, reinforcing our overweight in Gilts as growth headwinds build and inflation cools. Employment declined by 78k in March, accelerating from February’s downwardly revised 8k drop, while vacancies fell below pre-COVID…
Upgrade the odds of a full-scale war in the Taiwan Strait from 5% to 10%. Rapid escalation of US-China economic war raises the probability of tensions spilling into the military-strategic domain. Investors should buy insurance against this tail risk while it is cheap. Meanwhile, use this year’s trade shock and equity volatility to increase allocation to EM manufacturing states.
Trump’s renewed attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell raise policy uncertainty but are unlikely to lead to Powell’s removal, reinforcing our expectation for continued restrictive policy and supporting our long duration stance. Trump's intensified criticism…
Soft data for the US labor market has turned sharply lower, reinforcing the case for a defensive asset allocation. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Miroslav Aradski from our Global Investment Strategy team. While it may take months for the tariff shock and…