Developed Countries
“Bad news is good news” has emerged as the dominant market narrative over the past month. The early-March bank turmoil caused investors to raise their expectations of a Fed pivot to cutting interest rates in H2 in response to a deteriorating economic outlook.…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, if we really are on the steep side of the aggregate supply curve, then falling demand will largely drive down inflation without driving down employment. Many investors and market commentators…
The Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker reaccelerated in March, contradicting the signal from Average Hourly Earnings. The former rose from 6.1% to 6.4% (albeit below the 2022 peak of 6.7%) as the latter eased from 4.6% to 4.2%. Notably, service-sector wage…
Innovative Tech will face macroeconomic headwinds in a new “higher for longer” interest regime. Yet, the long-term opportunity of the cohort is tremendous. Investors need to be judicious with the timing of adding new capital to these themes to bolster long-term returns.
The US core consumer price index grew 0.38% in March, down from 0.45% in February and the lowest monthly print since November. The year-over-year core inflation rate is still a worryingly high 5.60%, but there is mounting evidence that a downtrend has begun. …
As expected, the Bank of Canada held the policy rate unchanged at 4.5% for the second consecutive time on Wednesday. In the Monetary Policy Report, the central bank revised up its GDP forecast for 2023 from 1.0% to 1.4%, but revised down the 2024 estimate to…
Less Positive
Less…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, the US economy will be strong enough to avoid rate cuts in 2023. As such, the 49 bps of rate cuts priced in for 2023 are misplaced. The minutes from the March FOMC meeting contained a few interesting…
No, the secular rise in geopolitical risk has not peaked. EU-China trade ties underscore the multipolar context, but this multipolarity is unbalanced, as the US has not reached a new equilibrium with its rivals. While the second quarter is murky, investors should stay defensive this year on the whole.
Today’s releases of the March CPI and March FOMC minutes do not change our view that the Fed will deliver one more 25 basis point rate increase before going on hold.