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Developed Countries

Can Europe Grow Faster Than The US?

Europe is hampered by a lower trend growth rate, but has room to grow faster than the US over the next two years. How can investors profit from this outlook?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Fed Obsession

Financial markets slumped with the tough talk that followed last week’s FOMC meeting, but investors should recognize that the tone of the Fed’s communications is conditioned upon the inflation backdrop. Once it improves, Chair Powell and his colleagues will be able to relax their rhetoric.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
US Nonfarm Payrolls Beat Expectations, Unemployment Rate Edges Higher
The US October employment report was mixed. On the positive side, US Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 261 thousand in October, largely above expectations of 193 thousand. Moreover, the September increase was revised up from 263 thousand to 315 thousand.…
Daily Insights
Fade Canada’s Blockbuster Employment Report
The Canadian economy unexpectedly added a whopping 108 thousand jobs in October – ten times the amount anticipated – and significantly above the 21 thousand increase in September. Job gains in October alone recouped cumulative losses observed from May to…
Daily Insights
Downside Pressure On Yields?
Global central banks’ uber-hawkish stance is behind the surge in bond yields this year. Policymakers are delivering outsized rate hikes in an attempt to combat decades-high inflation. The Fed delivered its fourth consecutive 75bp rate hike on Wednesday with…
Daily Insights
Timing The Peak In The Dollar
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, long-term investors should begin to sell the dollar on strength. From a pragmatic standpoint, there are five key signposts that have been useful in tracking the dollar uptrend this year.…
Daily Insights
ISM Services PMI Deteriorates In October
The ISM Services PMI declined by a greater than expected 2.4 points to 54.4 in October, signaling a slowdown in the pace of activity. The details of the release highlighted concerning dynamics at play. Most notably, new export orders plummeted 17.4 points…
Daily Insights
The BoE’s Dovish Jumbo Rate Hike
As anticipated, the Bank of England raised the Bank Rate by 75bps to 3% on Thursday. The decision marks the largest interest rate hike in 33 years and brings the cost of borrowing to a 14-year high. Notably, seven of the nine MPC members voted for the…
Daily Insights
Is The NOK’s October Rally Sustainable?
The Norwegian krone was the best performing G10 currency in October, appreciating by 4.7% versus the USD over this period. This marks a reversal following a 19% decline in the first nine months of the year, during which it was the second worst performing G10…
Daily Insights
Europe Will Beat The US To The ‘Pivot’

Older workers have deserted the labour force in the US and the UK, but not so in the Euro area and Japan. The result is that wage inflation is red hot in the US and the UK, but not so in the Euro area and Japan. Hence, the Bank of Japan is right to remain a lone dove, the ECB must pivot from its uber-hawkish stance quite soon, but the Fed and the BoE must not pivot from their uber-hawkish stance too soon. We go through the major investment implications.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi

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