Developed Countries
The ISM Manufacturing index declined from 50.9 to 50.2 in October, nearing stagnation and the lowest level since May 2020. The details of the report highlight conflicting dynamics at play in the US manufacturing sector. Although production growth…
The Global PMI suggests that factory activity deteriorated at a faster rate in October. The Manufacturing index declined from 49.8 to 49.4, marking the third consecutive monthly contraction. Notably, all seven subindexes either declined or remained below 50…
As expected, the Fed delivered a 75bp rate hike on Wednesday, bringing the cumulative increase in the Fed funds rate to 375bps since the start of the tightening cycle in March. The FOMC statement was amended from September to include a new sentence…
BCA Research’s Global Asset Allocation service recommends investors stay cautiously positioned. The Fed, along with most other major central banks, will keep on hiking rates until the beginning of next year, at which point interest rates will clearly be in…
After plummeting 8% m/m in August, US job openings increased by 4.3% to 10.7 million in September, surprising expectations of another monthly decline. Accommodation & food services, healthcare as well as transportation and warehousing drove the bulk of…
As anticipated, the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the Cash Rate by 25bps to 2.85% on Tuesday. This marks the second consecutive quarter-point increase, after it unexpectedly slowed the pace of hikes last month. The decision follows the release of Q3 CPI…
More than 60% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q3 results so far, with 72.3% of companies beating consensus analyst expectations, above the long-term average of 66%. Furthermore, 67% have posted Q3 revenues that exceed expectations. The surprise factor…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, from an investment standpoint, the issue of Fed profitability is nothing more than an entertaining sideshow. This year, for the first time ever, the Fed will spend more money than it takes in. This…
This week’s report examines the state of the global monetary tightening cycle and addresses some frequently asked questions about the Fed’s QT program. New yield curve trades are recommended for the US and German yield curves.
BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service concludes that the US does not face unusually large disruptions from increasing mortgage rates like economies where mortgage borrowers confront significant rate resets that will amount to a daunting increase in…