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Developed Countries

What Our Clients Are Asking: The "Snakes-And-Ladders" Webcast Follow-Up

This Fed is a single mandate Fed which won’t consider the job done until inflation reaches a 2% target. Concerns about slowing growth will displace concerns about inflation. Equities will bottom shortly before economic growth bottoms. Until then we recommend a defensive portfolio tilt, and offer a few tactical and strategic ideas for the overweights.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
Naïve Readings Of The Twentieth Party Congress (A GeoRisk Update)

Stay short Greater China assets. Stay long Japanese yen. Hold back on Brazil for now but look forward to opportunities in future.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri, Guy Russell
Data Dependent ECB

The ECB increased interest rates and announced the start of its balance sheet wind down; yet, markets took the news as a dovish outcome. Are we really getting close to the end of the ECB’s tightening campaign? How asset prices will react?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
The US Consumer Is Still Hanging On

We remain constructive on the economy and equities in the near term because consumers show no sign of hunkering down, US homeowners are largely impervious to higher mortgage rates and our latest survey of storefront occupancies on Lower Fifth Avenue highlighted some encouraging developments.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
Resilient US Consumption Despite Firming PCE Inflation In September
US personal spending grew at a constant 0.6% m/m rate in September, beating expectations of 0.4%. Spending on services led the overall growth, though goods spending also contributed positively, reversing the prior two months’ downtrend. Notably, real personal…
Daily Insights
Don’t Bet On A BoJ Policy Shift
As expected, the Bank of Japan maintained a dovish policy stance at its Friday meeting. It left the policy rate unchanged at -0.1% and kept the cap on 10-year bond yields. However, the central bank revised up its CPI inflation forecasts for the 2022, 2023,…
Daily Insights
Will The Eurozone Avoid A Recession?
Preliminary estimates indicate that German GDP growth accelerated by 0.3% q/q in Q3 from 0.1% q/q in Q2 and against expectations it would contract. The performance of the German economy is all the more notable that not only was it driven by consumption (CPI…
Daily Insights
The Structural Outlook for Bond Yields
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, falling inflation will allow bond yields to decline in the major economies over the next few quarters. Structurally, however, a depletion of the global savings glut could put upward pressure on…
Daily Insights
US Economy Returns To Positive Growth In Q3
Preliminary estimates indicate that US GDP grew by an annualized 2.6% in Q3, following two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and beating expectations of 2.4%. Net exports, and to a lesser extent, consumption were the main contributors to Q3 GDP growth.…
Daily Insights
The ECB Delivers Another Jumbo Hike
As expected, the ECB delivered another 75bp rate hike on Thursday. It also announced changes to the TLTRO terms and conditions – raising the borrowing costs of the facility, and offering banks an early repayment option. The market reaction suggests that…
Daily Insights

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